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Curiously, what does the homelessness & (true, ie not unemployment) jobless rate look like in that graph? Of course though, they're tough metrics. More importa

Curiously, what does the homelessness & (true, ie not unemployment) jobless rate look like in that graph? Of course though, they're tough metrics. More importantly though, we're on the cusp of some pretty hairy water. Imagine we drop all of the truck drivers, taxi drivers, Uber and Lift drivers tomorrow. How many millions of people will that be - where can they go? I'm not against automation in the slightest, but to think it won't have an impact on employment seems farfetched. Imagine a robot tomorrow, humanoid capable of basic tasks. How many millions of people would that displace almost instantly? I don't think the past 100 years even remotely indicates how we'll handle this as a society. We aren't talking about taking away one job. We're talking about taking away a skill category. No more drivers. No more basic manual labor. And that's not even talking about how growth would need to expand to handle the increase in workforce. Imagine our workforce doubles tomorrow - who is going to consume it all? Do we even want more consumption? I don't think it's as cut and dry as looking at the street cleaners and how they handled it when horses stopped being used transportation. We're talking about fundamentally categories of work becoming obsolete, and having no jobs that some people qualify for. With that said, I'm curious to live in a world where the population is forced to be educated. No low skilled jobs might have a benefit of (basically) no low educated people. However I am worried about how it will affect the current populace.

tomjen3 7y ago
Looking at the state of my apartment I could really use a fulltime maid/cook. I can't afford that right now, but if the difference between the average income for the low income group and the high income group goes up enough, that would be a possibility (assuming computer programmers continue to get paid a high income, whereas maids do not).
crazygringo 7y ago
> I don't think the past 100 years even remotely indicates how we'll handle this as a society. We aren't talking about taking away one job. We're talking about taking away a skill category. We did it with farmers. 80% of jobs in early 1800's, close to 40% in 1900, 20% by 1930, 5% by 1965, and 1.7% now. A whole "skill category" like driving doesn't even come close to farming. Automation, and even displacing drivers, is going to continue happening gradually, not overnight. E.g. only the easiest driving jobs in the easiest areas are automated first, then gradually more difficult ones... There's no "overnight". It'll take many years, and it will be fine just like it has each decade over the past century. [1] https://azizonomics.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/farmjobs.jpg https://azizonomics.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/farmjobs.jpg
- asdkhadsj 7y ago
  So I take it your view is we should not plan / discuss how to handle it? Take it on good faith that it'll be fine?
  - crazygringo 7y ago
    My view is that the loss of driving jobs can be handled normally, via existing free market and education institutions -- that it's no different from the loss of other job categories over the past 50 years. That this isn't special, that we're not "on the cusp of some pretty hairy water", but rather that this is just par for the course. I just don't see any statistics that suggest the scale or rate will be anything close to larger/faster than our economy can normally handle. If someone can show those comparative statistics exist, then I'll change my mind.
    - asdkhadsj 7y ago
      That's fair. It would be interesting to have data that compares all of the job classes out there and the number of workers out there, against the worker education. Ie, how many millions of food service workers, manual laborers, and drivers (for trucks, taxis, etc) could move upward in career depth? Where would we expect them to be absorbed? I definitely think this is hairy waters, in the sense that I want to see studies done. Planning for how it can be handled. Etc. Calling it fine in my view would suggest we don't even need to study it - which seems unfair. This degree of automation, assuming we can get over some AI hurdles of course, seems unparalleled - at least enough to warrant real data.
      - crazygringo 7y ago
        Just a quick point: they don't necessarily need to move upward. They can move laterally. They can work in package delivery, in restaurants, at Starbucks, in health care, in tourism, in solar panel and home battery installation, in environment cleanup sites, in converting homes to greater energy efficiency, and so on. Honestly a lot of the new jobs 20 years from now we have a hard time guessing what they'll even be (if you magically know, you'll make billions investing), which makes "planning" for it a bit handwavy anyways. (Remember, nobody "planned" for web developers to be an exploding new career.)

tomjen3 7y ago

Looking at the state of my apartment I could really use a fulltime maid/cook. I can't afford that right now, but if the difference between the average income for the low income group and the high income group goes up enough, that would be a possibility (assuming computer programmers continue to get paid a high income, whereas maids do not).

crazygringo 7y ago

> I don't think the past 100 years even remotely indicates how we'll handle this as a society. We aren't talking about taking away one job. We're talking about taking away a skill category. We did it with farmers. 80% of jobs in early 1800's, close to 40% in 1900, 20% by 1930, 5% by 1965, and 1.7% now. A whole "skill category" like driving doesn't even come close to farming. Automation, and even displacing drivers, is going to continue happening gradually, not overnight. E.g. only the easiest driving jobs in the easiest areas are automated first, then gradually more difficult ones... There's no "overnight". It'll take many years, and it will be fine just like it has each decade over the past century. [1] https://azizonomics.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/farmjobs.jpg https://azizonomics.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/farmjobs.jpg

asdkhadsj 7y ago
So I take it your view is we should not plan / discuss how to handle it? Take it on good faith that it'll be fine?
- crazygringo 7y ago
  My view is that the loss of driving jobs can be handled normally, via existing free market and education institutions -- that it's no different from the loss of other job categories over the past 50 years. That this isn't special, that we're not "on the cusp of some pretty hairy water", but rather that this is just par for the course. I just don't see any statistics that suggest the scale or rate will be anything close to larger/faster than our economy can normally handle. If someone can show those comparative statistics exist, then I'll change my mind.
  - asdkhadsj 7y ago
    That's fair. It would be interesting to have data that compares all of the job classes out there and the number of workers out there, against the worker education. Ie, how many millions of food service workers, manual laborers, and drivers (for trucks, taxis, etc) could move upward in career depth? Where would we expect them to be absorbed? I definitely think this is hairy waters, in the sense that I want to see studies done. Planning for how it can be handled. Etc. Calling it fine in my view would suggest we don't even need to study it - which seems unfair. This degree of automation, assuming we can get over some AI hurdles of course, seems unparalleled - at least enough to warrant real data.
    - crazygringo 7y ago
      Just a quick point: they don't necessarily need to move upward. They can move laterally. They can work in package delivery, in restaurants, at Starbucks, in health care, in tourism, in solar panel and home battery installation, in environment cleanup sites, in converting homes to greater energy efficiency, and so on. Honestly a lot of the new jobs 20 years from now we have a hard time guessing what they'll even be (if you magically know, you'll make billions investing), which makes "planning" for it a bit handwavy anyways. (Remember, nobody "planned" for web developers to be an exploding new career.)