Its both - programming is bimodal and becoming more so as we automate. A ton of programming is not really difficult, and cloud/SaaS keeps getting better to make

Its both - programming is bimodal and becoming more so as we automate. A ton of programming is not really difficult, and cloud/SaaS keeps getting better to make those simple tasks trivial - eg setting up a small ecommerce store or a blog. Meanwhile the hard stuff is out there, but increasingly being done by a few companies that sell it to the rest of the world. So programming is becoming more bimodal and if you’re not on the hard curve it is going to become a lot less lucrative and a lot more competitive.