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This is a great analysis. One giant missing factor: households with children. It's both difficult to match dietary needs and extremely expensive to feed a bu

This is a great analysis. One giant missing factor: households with children. It's both difficult to match dietary needs and extremely expensive to feed a bunch of dependents with takeout! A lot of folks I know establish entirely new habits as parents. Perhaps someone will successfully target that demographic, but I expect the social minefield of early parenting will be way harder to penetrate than the easy consumption of young professionals.

syshum 7y ago
It is not really missing. People are not having children and the ones that do are having a single child on average. I think it is one of the reasons to take out trend is so high. Of the people under 50 that I work with exactly 1 of them have children, and 1 of them wants children one day (but not now) the rest of us, including myself, have no children and have zero desire to have children. Looking at population data we are not alone in that.
- SonOfLilit 7y ago
  Perhaps not alone, but very very far from the norm. If I may ask, How old are you all? What else about your demographics/work environment could set you so far apart from the average stats?
  - icelancer 7y ago
    > How old are you all? What else about your demographics/work environment could set you so far apart from the average stats? They are young (not yet 40 years of age), have above-average incomes, and live in urban areas. If you cross-reference this population with desire to have kids, you will find them dragging the reproduction rate in this country massively downwards. The opposite is true about... every facet of what I just said. EDIT: Many people have pointed out why this is a terrible trend, for reasons that are obvious.
    - erklik 7y ago
      > Many people have pointed out why this is a terrible trend, for reasons that are obvious Are they? I am not sure I see the obvious reasons. Considering the future, maybe its a better idea to not have children.
      - cameronbrown 7y ago
        That's a little cynical isn't it? The world is improving by many, many metrics. Absolute poverty isn't just going down, it's accelerating towards zero. We're also hitting a point where everyone who can be, is connected. Online education is better than ever (for those who seek it). I could go on.
        erklik 7y ago
        Its defintely cynical. Yes, the world is improving in many ways. Poverty is getting pretty better, diseases are fairly easier to fight, and infanticide isn't a thing. However, its also clear that governments have seemingly no interest trying to fight climate change and a large amount of the world is going to be suffering from the consequences of that in the future.
        cameronbrown 7y ago
        My personal belief is that humans are bad at seeing into the future, but are great at mobilising around here-and-now problems. And I believe the next generation will be the ones to start tackling it while seeing the effects. I think 100% irreversible processes like microplastics in oceans is something that much more urgently needs dealing with. Repairing the climate is easy compared to filtering trillions of molecules back out the ocean.
        erklik 7y ago
        Well, maybe but the time it takes for the next generation to get in power, and actually start making changes, it might be too late for many many cities of the world. In times like this, isn't it more responsible to not have children?
  - syshum 7y ago
    Mid 30's how am I "very far from the norm", you must not be looking at the same stats that I am. Birth Rates are plummeting in the US, we have the lowest birth rates in all of recorded history right now, and if you remove immigration and 2nd generation children (children born to immigrants to the US) we have a massively negative population growth. No my friend, my generations is not, and does not want to have children
    - SonOfLilit 7y ago
      Our generation is less keen on having kids than any before it, true, but 1 in 50 at mid 30s is still orders of magnitude lower than the statistics I'm aware of. I strongly suspect you have some sort of selection bias going on that you're not aware of.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
  > People are not having children People are having fewer children but the change is not quite as stark as you are painting it. The US fertility rate is near or at an all time low, but it's not like it's half what it was in the 80s. It's just a few percent lower than it was forty years ago.
- evrydayhustling 7y ago
  Global fertility rate is 2.5 children per woman. US closer to 1.8. 70% of women aged 30-34 have a kid; as you get older rises to 85% (can't separate age trends from generational trends, alas). You can certainly define demographics that will remain childless, but a substantial majority of households will eventually raise a child. Worth considering in a model of how food will be prepared (or any other business it might impact).
- astura 7y ago
  The vast majority of people have children at some point in their lives. Around 80% last I remember.
edanm 7y ago
I completely agree. This has been one of my biggest surprises as a relatively new parent - food has become a much bigger issue, because suddenly you're feeding more mouths. So the cost of outsourcing is higher, the benefit of cooking yourself (and thus batching the cooking production) is much higher, etc. We did indeed establish a lot of new routines for cooking as new parents.

syshum 7y ago

It is not really missing. People are not having children and the ones that do are having a single child on average. I think it is one of the reasons to take out trend is so high. Of the people under 50 that I work with exactly 1 of them have children, and 1 of them wants children one day (but not now) the rest of us, including myself, have no children and have zero desire to have children. Looking at population data we are not alone in that.

SonOfLilit 7y ago
Perhaps not alone, but very very far from the norm. If I may ask, How old are you all? What else about your demographics/work environment could set you so far apart from the average stats?
- icelancer 7y ago
  > How old are you all? What else about your demographics/work environment could set you so far apart from the average stats? They are young (not yet 40 years of age), have above-average incomes, and live in urban areas. If you cross-reference this population with desire to have kids, you will find them dragging the reproduction rate in this country massively downwards. The opposite is true about... every facet of what I just said. EDIT: Many people have pointed out why this is a terrible trend, for reasons that are obvious.
  - erklik 7y ago
    > Many people have pointed out why this is a terrible trend, for reasons that are obvious Are they? I am not sure I see the obvious reasons. Considering the future, maybe its a better idea to not have children.
    - cameronbrown 7y ago
      That's a little cynical isn't it? The world is improving by many, many metrics. Absolute poverty isn't just going down, it's accelerating towards zero. We're also hitting a point where everyone who can be, is connected. Online education is better than ever (for those who seek it). I could go on.
      - erklik 7y ago
        Its defintely cynical. Yes, the world is improving in many ways. Poverty is getting pretty better, diseases are fairly easier to fight, and infanticide isn't a thing. However, its also clear that governments have seemingly no interest trying to fight climate change and a large amount of the world is going to be suffering from the consequences of that in the future.
        cameronbrown 7y ago
        My personal belief is that humans are bad at seeing into the future, but are great at mobilising around here-and-now problems. And I believe the next generation will be the ones to start tackling it while seeing the effects. I think 100% irreversible processes like microplastics in oceans is something that much more urgently needs dealing with. Repairing the climate is easy compared to filtering trillions of molecules back out the ocean.
        erklik 7y ago
        Well, maybe but the time it takes for the next generation to get in power, and actually start making changes, it might be too late for many many cities of the world. In times like this, isn't it more responsible to not have children?
- syshum 7y ago
  Mid 30's how am I "very far from the norm", you must not be looking at the same stats that I am. Birth Rates are plummeting in the US, we have the lowest birth rates in all of recorded history right now, and if you remove immigration and 2nd generation children (children born to immigrants to the US) we have a massively negative population growth. No my friend, my generations is not, and does not want to have children
  - SonOfLilit 7y ago
    Our generation is less keen on having kids than any before it, true, but 1 in 50 at mid 30s is still orders of magnitude lower than the statistics I'm aware of. I strongly suspect you have some sort of selection bias going on that you're not aware of.
asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
> People are not having children People are having fewer children but the change is not quite as stark as you are painting it. The US fertility rate is near or at an all time low, but it's not like it's half what it was in the 80s. It's just a few percent lower than it was forty years ago.
evrydayhustling 7y ago
Global fertility rate is 2.5 children per woman. US closer to 1.8. 70% of women aged 30-34 have a kid; as you get older rises to 85% (can't separate age trends from generational trends, alas). You can certainly define demographics that will remain childless, but a substantial majority of households will eventually raise a child. Worth considering in a model of how food will be prepared (or any other business it might impact).
astura 7y ago
The vast majority of people have children at some point in their lives. Around 80% last I remember.

edanm 7y ago

I completely agree. This has been one of my biggest surprises as a relatively new parent - food has become a much bigger issue, because suddenly you're feeding more mouths. So the cost of outsourcing is higher, the benefit of cooking yourself (and thus batching the cooking production) is much higher, etc. We did indeed establish a lot of new routines for cooking as new parents.