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It is rare that I read a HN comment that just get it completely, outright wrong. After the Tether news came out. USDT/USD dropped to around 0.97 which is aroun
by verroq 7y ago
It is rare that I read a HN comment that just get it completely, outright wrong.
After the Tether news came out. USDT/USD dropped to around 0.97 which is around a 3% discount. The Bitcoin price on Bitfinex had an additional 4% premium, which is what the market has priced the exchange risk to be. [1]
If people wanted to get out of Bitfinex, they had ample time to buy BTC and get out. They can also withdraw USDT to binance, and exchange for BTC on another USDT exchange, such as Binance. In fact, the price had been relatively flat for 5 days after Tether news. If you thought Tether or Bitfinex was insolvent, I doubt very much you'd wait 5 days to make your move. So in fact, this did not cause a run up.
There is no reason why Tether being only 70% backed would cause "a run on Tether exchanges" (what does that sentence even mean?). The truth is, people don't really care if Tether is only 70% backed. Bitfinex makes enough money to cover the shortfall easily. The largest community of Tether holders are not westerners. They are Chinese, they hold USDT to get RMB out of China, they absolutely love Tether. Tether traded at a premium to USD before, during and after the USAG news came out on Chinese OTC exchanges. Bitfinex easily fundraised 1b USD from big Chinese players with the LEO token in about a week.
The market had already decided that the Tether news as a nothingburger. After a slew of bad news "China mining ban", "Tether", "Binance hack", the price continued to run up. When a market discounts bad news like this, it means a fundamental shift occurred, the weak hands who did not believe in the core value of Bitcoin has exited the market and the market is free to move up.
There is a lot of salt about Bitcoin on HN, many missed the run from $10 to $1k, many more missed the run from $200 to $20k, Bitcoin is at a cusp of a run from $3k to ??? and HN will tell you everything to not get on the train.
[1] https://i.imgur.com/MC4obep.png https://i.imgur.com/MC4obep.png