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With more fiber being laid every day, increasing wireless deployments, and technologies like AirGig in the horizon, is Starlink launching into a shrinking marke

With more fiber being laid every day, increasing wireless deployments, and technologies like AirGig in the horizon, is Starlink launching into a shrinking market? Further, as SpaceX is having trouble raising the needed funds, is this launch simply a fundraising exercise?

tyingq 7y ago
Rural areas should still be a viable market. Also ships and aircraft. Current airborne internet access is pretty expensive, slow, and high latency.
- portillo 7y ago
  If all the constellation + GEO systems proposals end up being launched, there will be an oversupply of capacity from space. Rural areas are a viable market only in the US and Canada, where people can afford to pay $50+/month for connectivity. Elsewhere in the world, they are not going to sell to any end-users. The 4,425 and the 7,500 satellite constellations proposed by SpaceX are way oversized and simply put, a waste of money and efforts.
  - gbear605 7y ago
    There are essentially no variable costs for the satellites, and since they will be in LEO, a satellite to supply rural US also supplies everywhere in India. So SpaceX can sell their services for $5/month (or less) to people in India and $50/month to people in the US. Everyone (within certain longitude bounds) is a possible customer.
  - s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
    The mesh of satellites favor the northern hemispheres, you have a much lower density in lower regions, so you could charge less for them. And they could stop launching them if they don't see a supply, basically just matching their registration numbers and launching more when the bandwidth/users require it. Those numbers seem to just be a target for an ideal completed system, not for it to become operational.
  - travisoneill1 7y ago
    At $10 billion to deploy and lets assume 5 years satellite lifetime and $1 billion a year to operate, this is $3 billion a year or $250 million / month. You would only need 5 million subscribers at $50 / month to break even.
    - zaroth 7y ago
      Seriously. I’ll switch just so I don’t have to pay Comcast. Now I just need some Tesla solar panels and a couple powerwalls, and betweeen that, a well, my septic system, I can cut every cable coming into my house. Well, I do use natural gas for heating and I love my gas stove, but nearly there! If only the receiver and the power requirements were small enough to fit in my cell phone!
- mrep 7y ago
  Don't forget the US DOD who spent $300 million per satellite for 10 geostationary communication satellites that each have 2.4 Gbit/s of capacity [0]. That's $3 billion dollars on just the satellites and Starlink is being designed to have orders of magnitude more capacity (21 Gbit/s per satellite * 12,000 satellites vs 2.4 Gbit/s * 10 satellites), lower latency (LEO vs GEO), and way more redundancy. They've also already awarded spacex a $28.7 million dollar contract for "experimentation in the areas of establishing connectivity, operational experimentation, and special purpose experimentation. Experimentation will include connectivity demonstrations to Air Force ground sites and aircraft for experimental purposes" [1] so they are definitely eyeing it. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wideband_Global_SATCOM https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wideband_Global_SATCOM [1]: http://www.parabolicarc.com/2018/12/27/spacex-receives-287-million-usaf-contract-starlink-constellation/ http://www.parabolicarc.com/2018/12/27/spacex-receives-287-m...
marstomorrow 7y ago
> With more fiber being laid every day, increasing wireless deployments, and technologies like AirGig in the horizon, is Starlink launching into a shrinking market? What you are describing sounds like a rapidly expanding market, not a shrinking market, though, right? > Further, as SpaceX is having trouble raising the needed funds, is this launch simply a fundraising exercise? What do you mean? SpaceX is not having trouble raising their needed funds. Do you have a citation for that? This is the first I'd be hearing of it and would be surprised. Also, needed for what? Are you referring to Mars colonization? > is this launch simply a fundraising exercise? This also doesn't make any sense. This launch is a groundbreaking event that begins a 12,000 satellite network deployment. This is a very cost-intensive thing and not exactly a 'fund raising exercise'; it's intended to provide early service to internet customers.
- ancientworldnow 7y ago
  SpaceX's last few raises did not perform well with the last two raising $43 million out of $400 million offered (2019) and $250 million out of $750 million offered (2018).
  - marstomorrow 7y ago
    I searched for this for the last 5 minutes but couldn't find any info about it online. Do you have any links or citations? I think it is false info. Edit: Based on the info I was able to find, it looks like this is indeed false information and not true at all. I can find no evidence that SpaceX is having trouble raising money or that their recent raises have gone poorly. No evidence. But I can find a lot of people explaining why these numbers are incorrect and why it is false to say that SpaceX is having trouble raising money. A lot. Here are a few. https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/bem0lr/spacex_only_received_44m_in_investment_of_the/ https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/bem0lr/spacex_only_...
    - SECProto 7y ago
      Not OP but: This is the 2019 raise they were referring to [1]. I don't know much about SEC regulations - they're required to file info about who has invested in the first 15 days - and rumours used that to say they couldn't sell all they offered. Other rumours said that they don't have to file to say they sold it all. Would appreciate clarity from someone who knows SEC regulations. [1] http://www.parabolicarc.com/2019/04/17/spacex-embarks-funding-raise-400-million/ http://www.parabolicarc.com/2019/04/17/spacex-embarks-fundin... Edit: you've found the discussion I read a bit ago. Good.
_Microft 7y ago
View it this way: SpaceX is not planning to lay a high-speed connection to one town but to all towns at once. It is going to be a money-printing machine if that works out. No matter how deep in the desert someone is, they can have the same connection as someone much closer to a city. Granted, it is not going to have fiber-bandwidth but it's fast enough and everywhere between 53° of latitude north and south.
- hef19898 7y ago
  So it is again a long term gamble to maybe make one day a load of money. So again one of Elon Musks enterprises is promising a long term success story. Before they get there they have how many satellites to build and launch? Before space link is profitable and cash positive all that cost has to off set by profit and positive cash flow. Looking at it from that perspective, the idea that this is some kind of fund raising exercise isn't to far fetched. Personally I doubt that SpaceX is cash positive and profitable as their funding rounds just match too nicely their losses if you assume that real SpaceX launch costs are somewhere near the commercial costs of their competition. Honestly, I almost expected something like that after their capsule blew up. The saddest element of both SpaceX and Tesla is that all the successes and cool stuff these companies do just gets drowned in all the Musk hype and BS. An I seriously doubt that it does any good.
  - marstomorrow 7y ago
    > So it is again a long term gamble to maybe make one day a load of money. No, that's not what this is. The comment above you said nothing about this anyway, it seems to be off-topic? The entire point of this launch is to reduce the risk, assess potential problems early, and find paying customers quickly to prove the market demand before and their ability to handle it, before scaling up and launching more. > So again one of Elon Musks enterprises is promising a long term success story. There is no way to make the world better without trying to do it. And that takes time. Why would you have a problem with someone trying to make the world better on a long-term scale? And also, nobody is promising anything, especially as SpaceX is not a public company and has no public investors. > Before they get there they have how many satellites to build and launch? Like, 60? And just this launch? I believe they intend to be revenue-generating from this very first network launch? This isn't some long-term gamble, they are testing the market quickly for acceptance of their tech and business model. > Before space link is profitable and cash positive all that cost has to off set by profit and positive cash flow It's called Starlink. And, okay..? > Personally I doubt that SpaceX is cash positive and profitable Oh. You are directly stating that the CFO, CEO and President of SpaceX are liars? If that is your position I don't think much that I say will ever change your understanding of this. You are mired in conspiracy theories and not listening to the facts in the world.
mikeash 7y ago
That’s what happened with Iridium in the 90s. By the time they launched, cellular coverage had greatly eaten into their market and they went bankrupt. (Having disposed of the enormous capital costs, they went on to become profitable and are doing quite well today.) A major difference is that Iridium service was (and still is) extremely expensive. Nobody used it unless it was the only choice. Out in the middle of the ocean? Iridium is great. At the end of a long country road with nothing but a POTS line that can barely accommodate a 14.4k modem? Use that modem, it’s way cheaper and faster. SpaceX hopes to provide pricing and speeds that are competitive with terrestrial options in many places. They’re not just trying to serve an ever-shrinking customer base that can’t get any connectivity otherwise.
- xvilka 7y ago
  They recently upgraded the satellite network, providing greeater speed and services.

tyingq 7y ago

Rural areas should still be a viable market. Also ships and aircraft. Current airborne internet access is pretty expensive, slow, and high latency.

portillo 7y ago
If all the constellation + GEO systems proposals end up being launched, there will be an oversupply of capacity from space. Rural areas are a viable market only in the US and Canada, where people can afford to pay $50+/month for connectivity. Elsewhere in the world, they are not going to sell to any end-users. The 4,425 and the 7,500 satellite constellations proposed by SpaceX are way oversized and simply put, a waste of money and efforts.
- gbear605 7y ago
  There are essentially no variable costs for the satellites, and since they will be in LEO, a satellite to supply rural US also supplies everywhere in India. So SpaceX can sell their services for $5/month (or less) to people in India and $50/month to people in the US. Everyone (within certain longitude bounds) is a possible customer.
- s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
  The mesh of satellites favor the northern hemispheres, you have a much lower density in lower regions, so you could charge less for them. And they could stop launching them if they don't see a supply, basically just matching their registration numbers and launching more when the bandwidth/users require it. Those numbers seem to just be a target for an ideal completed system, not for it to become operational.
- travisoneill1 7y ago
  At $10 billion to deploy and lets assume 5 years satellite lifetime and $1 billion a year to operate, this is $3 billion a year or $250 million / month. You would only need 5 million subscribers at $50 / month to break even.
  - zaroth 7y ago
    Seriously. I’ll switch just so I don’t have to pay Comcast. Now I just need some Tesla solar panels and a couple powerwalls, and betweeen that, a well, my septic system, I can cut every cable coming into my house. Well, I do use natural gas for heating and I love my gas stove, but nearly there! If only the receiver and the power requirements were small enough to fit in my cell phone!
mrep 7y ago
Don't forget the US DOD who spent $300 million per satellite for 10 geostationary communication satellites that each have 2.4 Gbit/s of capacity [0]. That's $3 billion dollars on just the satellites and Starlink is being designed to have orders of magnitude more capacity (21 Gbit/s per satellite * 12,000 satellites vs 2.4 Gbit/s * 10 satellites), lower latency (LEO vs GEO), and way more redundancy. They've also already awarded spacex a $28.7 million dollar contract for "experimentation in the areas of establishing connectivity, operational experimentation, and special purpose experimentation. Experimentation will include connectivity demonstrations to Air Force ground sites and aircraft for experimental purposes" [1] so they are definitely eyeing it. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wideband_Global_SATCOM https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wideband_Global_SATCOM [1]: http://www.parabolicarc.com/2018/12/27/spacex-receives-287-million-usaf-contract-starlink-constellation/ http://www.parabolicarc.com/2018/12/27/spacex-receives-287-m...

marstomorrow 7y ago

> With more fiber being laid every day, increasing wireless deployments, and technologies like AirGig in the horizon, is Starlink launching into a shrinking market? What you are describing sounds like a rapidly expanding market, not a shrinking market, though, right? > Further, as SpaceX is having trouble raising the needed funds, is this launch simply a fundraising exercise? What do you mean? SpaceX is not having trouble raising their needed funds. Do you have a citation for that? This is the first I'd be hearing of it and would be surprised. Also, needed for what? Are you referring to Mars colonization? > is this launch simply a fundraising exercise? This also doesn't make any sense. This launch is a groundbreaking event that begins a 12,000 satellite network deployment. This is a very cost-intensive thing and not exactly a 'fund raising exercise'; it's intended to provide early service to internet customers.

ancientworldnow 7y ago
SpaceX's last few raises did not perform well with the last two raising $43 million out of $400 million offered (2019) and $250 million out of $750 million offered (2018).
- marstomorrow 7y ago
  I searched for this for the last 5 minutes but couldn't find any info about it online. Do you have any links or citations? I think it is false info. Edit: Based on the info I was able to find, it looks like this is indeed false information and not true at all. I can find no evidence that SpaceX is having trouble raising money or that their recent raises have gone poorly. No evidence. But I can find a lot of people explaining why these numbers are incorrect and why it is false to say that SpaceX is having trouble raising money. A lot. Here are a few. https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/bem0lr/spacex_only_received_44m_in_investment_of_the/ https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/bem0lr/spacex_only_...
  - SECProto 7y ago
    Not OP but: This is the 2019 raise they were referring to [1]. I don't know much about SEC regulations - they're required to file info about who has invested in the first 15 days - and rumours used that to say they couldn't sell all they offered. Other rumours said that they don't have to file to say they sold it all. Would appreciate clarity from someone who knows SEC regulations. [1] http://www.parabolicarc.com/2019/04/17/spacex-embarks-funding-raise-400-million/ http://www.parabolicarc.com/2019/04/17/spacex-embarks-fundin... Edit: you've found the discussion I read a bit ago. Good.

_Microft 7y ago

View it this way: SpaceX is not planning to lay a high-speed connection to one town but to all towns at once. It is going to be a money-printing machine if that works out. No matter how deep in the desert someone is, they can have the same connection as someone much closer to a city. Granted, it is not going to have fiber-bandwidth but it's fast enough and everywhere between 53° of latitude north and south.

hef19898 7y ago
So it is again a long term gamble to maybe make one day a load of money. So again one of Elon Musks enterprises is promising a long term success story. Before they get there they have how many satellites to build and launch? Before space link is profitable and cash positive all that cost has to off set by profit and positive cash flow. Looking at it from that perspective, the idea that this is some kind of fund raising exercise isn't to far fetched. Personally I doubt that SpaceX is cash positive and profitable as their funding rounds just match too nicely their losses if you assume that real SpaceX launch costs are somewhere near the commercial costs of their competition. Honestly, I almost expected something like that after their capsule blew up. The saddest element of both SpaceX and Tesla is that all the successes and cool stuff these companies do just gets drowned in all the Musk hype and BS. An I seriously doubt that it does any good.
- marstomorrow 7y ago
  > So it is again a long term gamble to maybe make one day a load of money. No, that's not what this is. The comment above you said nothing about this anyway, it seems to be off-topic? The entire point of this launch is to reduce the risk, assess potential problems early, and find paying customers quickly to prove the market demand before and their ability to handle it, before scaling up and launching more. > So again one of Elon Musks enterprises is promising a long term success story. There is no way to make the world better without trying to do it. And that takes time. Why would you have a problem with someone trying to make the world better on a long-term scale? And also, nobody is promising anything, especially as SpaceX is not a public company and has no public investors. > Before they get there they have how many satellites to build and launch? Like, 60? And just this launch? I believe they intend to be revenue-generating from this very first network launch? This isn't some long-term gamble, they are testing the market quickly for acceptance of their tech and business model. > Before space link is profitable and cash positive all that cost has to off set by profit and positive cash flow It's called Starlink. And, okay..? > Personally I doubt that SpaceX is cash positive and profitable Oh. You are directly stating that the CFO, CEO and President of SpaceX are liars? If that is your position I don't think much that I say will ever change your understanding of this. You are mired in conspiracy theories and not listening to the facts in the world.

mikeash 7y ago

That’s what happened with Iridium in the 90s. By the time they launched, cellular coverage had greatly eaten into their market and they went bankrupt. (Having disposed of the enormous capital costs, they went on to become profitable and are doing quite well today.) A major difference is that Iridium service was (and still is) extremely expensive. Nobody used it unless it was the only choice. Out in the middle of the ocean? Iridium is great. At the end of a long country road with nothing but a POTS line that can barely accommodate a 14.4k modem? Use that modem, it’s way cheaper and faster. SpaceX hopes to provide pricing and speeds that are competitive with terrestrial options in many places. They’re not just trying to serve an ever-shrinking customer base that can’t get any connectivity otherwise.

xvilka 7y ago
They recently upgraded the satellite network, providing greeater speed and services.