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I have been in a number of workplace situations where I try to accurately convey uncertainty of outcomes and people latch onto that part, and not the ~95% accur

I have been in a number of workplace situations where I try to accurately convey uncertainty of outcomes and people latch onto that part, and not the ~95% accurate core message I am really saying. Then they go to ask an overconfident jerk who is maybe 10-20% correct, but expresses it as 100% certain. Then I get the reputation for being the one who never knows what he is talking about, and the next time something comes up they won't even ask me, they will go straight to the overconfident one who consistently gives bad advice with no room for doubt. So I guess the short way of saying it: I think it's great to communicate when you are not sure, but you need buy-in from everyone that this is what everybody does. You can't have people that assume uncertainty is weakness, or expect that the world is more certain than it is. And it can get troublesome when you have a mix of different levels of honesty and humility. People get shafted for being honest.

oehpr 8y ago
When I was a just getting out of being a teen (17-19 ish?), I started a challenge (ideology? creed?) for myself. It was to "never be wrong". To do this I would have to be realistic of my certainties, be brutally honest with myself about what I thought I knew, how I knew it, and the likelyhoods of each. I had hoped I'd build up over time, a blurrier, but more accurate view of the world. I learned this lesson myself, people interpret uncertainty as simply "not knowing", if you "not know" enough you're considered not knowledgeable. I had thought stating my certainty would mean when I was very certain, people would take that information seriously. It was the exact opposite. Simply being uncertain means you arn't reliable and can't be trusted. I've mostly abandoned this way of thinking now. I don't even think like that internally any more either. It was not a useful challenge/ideology/creed for me. I take comfort that I'm at least no worse than anyone else.
- asveikau 8y ago
  "Never to be wrong" sounds like a big source of anxiety. I think for me it was always to admit that my mind isn't perfect, that it's always possible that the model built from assemblage of facts could be faulty. And a polite deference to opposing ideas. Some people in corporate politics will walk all over you for allowing such things. But I would call it not being a jerk.
  - oehpr 8y ago
    I don't suffer much from that kind of anxiety. I found the challenge pretty compelling actually. Built in was the recognition "You're certain of this, but why? Is your tower built on shaky foundations? Check it again, because if you're wrong you'll fail the challenge". Does that seem like anxiety? It didn't feel that way to me, because I could always just pair back my certainty in such cases. Again, I enjoyed the challenge, I just didn't enjoy the effect it had on me socially, or in my career. I'd rather have friends who believe I'm smart and competent on a good career path than always be right.

oehpr 8y ago

When I was a just getting out of being a teen (17-19 ish?), I started a challenge (ideology? creed?) for myself. It was to "never be wrong". To do this I would have to be realistic of my certainties, be brutally honest with myself about what I thought I knew, how I knew it, and the likelyhoods of each. I had hoped I'd build up over time, a blurrier, but more accurate view of the world. I learned this lesson myself, people interpret uncertainty as simply "not knowing", if you "not know" enough you're considered not knowledgeable. I had thought stating my certainty would mean when I was very certain, people would take that information seriously. It was the exact opposite. Simply being uncertain means you arn't reliable and can't be trusted. I've mostly abandoned this way of thinking now. I don't even think like that internally any more either. It was not a useful challenge/ideology/creed for me. I take comfort that I'm at least no worse than anyone else.

asveikau 8y ago
"Never to be wrong" sounds like a big source of anxiety. I think for me it was always to admit that my mind isn't perfect, that it's always possible that the model built from assemblage of facts could be faulty. And a polite deference to opposing ideas. Some people in corporate politics will walk all over you for allowing such things. But I would call it not being a jerk.
- oehpr 8y ago
  I don't suffer much from that kind of anxiety. I found the challenge pretty compelling actually. Built in was the recognition "You're certain of this, but why? Is your tower built on shaky foundations? Check it again, because if you're wrong you'll fail the challenge". Does that seem like anxiety? It didn't feel that way to me, because I could always just pair back my certainty in such cases. Again, I enjoyed the challenge, I just didn't enjoy the effect it had on me socially, or in my career. I'd rather have friends who believe I'm smart and competent on a good career path than always be right.