Makes me think of this essay [1] by the CIA comparing different common speech words to their probability. Some people might say "absolutely" and mean 95%, and 9

Makes me think of this essay [1] by the CIA comparing different common speech words to their probability. Some people might say "absolutely" and mean 95%, and 95% to them really only mans 80%. It is just important to explain why you think what you do, but also to not penalize people for a wrong estimate or they will stop trying at all. Otherwise, you will just get a stratified upper staff layer that has too much power to be removed that is "100% sure" about everything because it is better to be a yes-man than to be uncertain. [1]: https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/sherman-kent-and-the-board-of-national-estimates-collected-essays/6words.html#top https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intellig...