While Brunner's forecasts may have been prescient, that might be due to the freedom he enjoyed as a science fiction writer. Forecasters making earnest and seri

While Brunner's forecasts may have been prescient, that might be due to the freedom he enjoyed as a science fiction writer. Forecasters making earnest and serious attempts to predict technological and social change over a couple decades often get it badly wrong. One of my favorite books is "Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change" by Stephen P. Schnaars, which provides many examples of poor predictions. In some cases, technological change is simply delayed, as in video calling, which can now be done with smartphones 50 years after PicturePhone. In other cases, such as supersonic airliners or gas turbine powered cars, the predictions may never become true.