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Predicting anything is a gamble. One simply does not know what will happen but one makes assumptions. Let'ś take weather forecasting as an example. It is diff
by mhkool 7y ago
Predicting anything is a gamble. One simply does not know what will happen but one makes assumptions.
Let'ś take weather forecasting as an example. It is difficult to do it right for 5 days and often goes wrong for 10 days. But when you ask a group of scientist a simple question, like "Do you think that humans contribute to the rise of CO2 ?" and 97% say "yeah", then you can make a new assumption: CO2 will probably rise fast and we can make a new climate model that goes beyond 10-day forecasts and we assume that we can accurately forecast what happens in 80 years. Most, however, do not realise that they assume a lot.
- TheOtherHobbes 7y agoYou seem to be implying that climate forecasting can't possibly be accurate because weather forecasting is time-limited. That's not correct. Climate and weather forecasting are different disciplines based on different models. Of course you can't forecast whether it will be raining on a specific day twenty years from now. But you can certainly make a good estimate of how likely drought is.
- kartan 7y ago> Predicting anything is a gamble. And casinos win all the time. Yes gambling and predicting are interconnected. They both share a common history. > One simply does not know what will happen but one makes assumptions. Tomorrow the sun will rise. I do not know, it is just an assumption. But, I am quite certain of it. :) > we assume that we can accurately forecast what happens in 80 years. Nobody assumes that. Nobody forecasts the weather in 80 years. What scientists forecast is climate changes not the weather. In the casino I cannot predict which players will win and which lose (weather). And yet I can predict that they will lose on average and the casino win (climate).
- empath75 7y ago> accurately forecast what happens in 80 years. You can’t accurately forecast what the weather will be on June 28th 80 years from now, for the same reason you can’t predict if it will be raining at your house at 3:29 pm two days from now, or where some molecule of water will end up in the Mississippi River an hour from now. But you can assuredly make less specific forecasts based on current trends. You know it’s likely to rain at some point in the morning two days from now, that the water molecule will flow roughly downstream, and that average air temperatures will increase if we keep putting CO2 in the atmosphere.
- dTal 7y agoAn analogy: Go down a sea wall and dunk a measuring stick in. As the waves lap against it, how far in advance can you predict the exact height measured? Not much more than a second - it's too chaotic. But observe it for a day or two, and deduce the existence of tides. Now you can easily predict the average (minute-to-minute) water height months in advance.