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This is a magnificently unfalsifiable prediction.
by idlewords 8y ago
This is a magnificently unfalsifiable prediction.
- seafoam 8y agoJust wait.
- tedunangst 8y agoEven if the world doesn't end, you can't calculate the true chance it would have after the fact. Flipping one coin a single time doesn't tell you what the heads/tails probabilities are.
- smadge 8y agoWe constantly have to make unfalsifiable predictions to make decisions in this world. You can’t turn back the clock and see how a different decision would have effected the outcome of your life. The best we can do is use our prior knowledge of the way the world works. Since Jared Diamond has researched human history, society collapse, resource management, etc, he seems better equipped to make these estimations than most.