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To pile on, predictions like this should round to the nearest nice number within the error bars. Saying "49%" implies you have enough knowledge to distinguish b
by throwawayjava 7y ago
To pile on, predictions like this should round to the nearest nice number within the error bars. Saying "49%" implies you have enough knowledge to distinguish between "49%" and "50%" (in this case, there isn't even any quantitative analysis -- it's just a made up number, so they might as well say "49.44232115%" if they're not going to say "50%").
- brownbat 7y agoYeah. Sometimes we use "50/50" as a euphemism when we really have no idea. 49% sounds like "I have no idea but really want everyone to think I've given this a lot of careful thought." If I had to be charitable, maybe Diamond believes a lone prediction at 50% is actually meaningless, so he always nudges to one side or the other so people can at least score him a little. No idea though.