4 ms·
> Logic is important and it isn't going away, but reality has too much uncertainty for simple logic to work in practice. The statistically grounded approach mak
by jononor 7y ago
> Logic is important and it isn't going away, but reality has too much uncertainty for simple logic to work in practice. The statistically grounded approach makes me happier, and again computer hardware's power is overwhelming the efforts of the logicians to tie everything down to certainties.
http://incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html http://incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html
takes this even further, suggesting that even the statistically grounded, human-enriched approaches are loosing way to simpler methods fuel by hardware advances.
- sgt101 7y agoI think we've got about 12 years of that left. There are three hardware waves coming: 1. In about 12 years we will have another "tick" of general purpose compute doubling. This will happen as sensible, known architectural changes and the slowed progress of Moores type hardware development come together. 2. We will have a wave of hetrogenous and specialist hardware architectures that will bump things along. 3. The hardware manufactures will crack and license / sell servers on a core/hour basis. This will allow people to burst compute on 100's or 1000's of cores without the always on capital commitment. This won't impact on the cloud providers but will provide on prem with a lease of life and allow people who can't migrate to the cloud due to legacy etc an escape hatch. After that, I see a real choke on compute progress; expect a doubling every 50 years at best. The current "Moores" rate is 20 years, but that's based on the current investment fat industry. Once investors get there heads around the technology realities I expect all the cash to come out of chip making really quick. Innovation will crash stop. At that point it's going to be software or bust for AI. I predict software...