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Sometimes I see no difference between these Market Gurus and Horoscope readers. Just say some bullshit authoritatively and some people will believe.

duxup 7y ago
I prefer the more educated folks who provide insights like "Stocks were down today due to a sell-off"
- mindcrime 7y ago
  Or "The Dow is down 312.9 points today due to geo-political tension in the Middle East", etc.
  - wesammikhail 7y ago
    Reminds me of Aswath Damodaran´s china bit: "When in doubt, use China. It´s gonna make you look smart while saying absolutely nothing"
    - scarejunba 7y ago
      The absolute confidence with which people provide post-hoc explanations is great. Often the data is available for those explanations before the market behaviour and with $10k you could make $500k on SPY but everyone can explain after the fact but no one can predict. Absolute cock and bull nonsense.
      - AznHisoka 7y ago
        What is funny is when you see CNBC change the headline/narrative when the market suddenly moves in the opposite direction. Stock drops 2% at open: "Markets are falling because tariffs are 100% bearish signal. Sell it all!" Stock rebounds 2% a minute later: "Markets are up because tariffs can't stop the American economy."
rubyn00bie 7y ago
There isn't any difference both are empirically absolute bullshit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brownian_model_of_financial_markets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brownian_model_of_financial_ma...
- IfOnlyYouKnew 7y ago
  That... doesn't quite work, logically? Observing that there is no predictable "signal" in stock price changes only proves that whatever you're using to make predictions is unable to beat the market (the "efficient market hypothesis"). Stock prices are very obviously not completely random, in that they tend towards $0 when companies go bankrupt. There is some randomness, or at least unpredictability, in stock prices. This is called "volatility". But the model operates on the very small tick-to-tick scale, not wether UBER is priced at $45 or $450.
loceng 7y ago
Well, if it's actually possible to read what stars and their relative positions mean for specific people based on when/where they were born - to understand large holistic patterns - then perhaps there are market gurus who have developed the same knowledge, skill, understanding of the larger picture - an intuition developed perhaps trusting your feelings. And yes, the majority are weighted towards being "sheep" who are in the mode of being indoctrinated - following the crowd..

duxup 7y ago

I prefer the more educated folks who provide insights like "Stocks were down today due to a sell-off"

mindcrime 7y ago
Or "The Dow is down 312.9 points today due to geo-political tension in the Middle East", etc.
- wesammikhail 7y ago
  Reminds me of Aswath Damodaran´s china bit: "When in doubt, use China. It´s gonna make you look smart while saying absolutely nothing"
  - scarejunba 7y ago
    The absolute confidence with which people provide post-hoc explanations is great. Often the data is available for those explanations before the market behaviour and with $10k you could make $500k on SPY but everyone can explain after the fact but no one can predict. Absolute cock and bull nonsense.
    - AznHisoka 7y ago
      What is funny is when you see CNBC change the headline/narrative when the market suddenly moves in the opposite direction. Stock drops 2% at open: "Markets are falling because tariffs are 100% bearish signal. Sell it all!" Stock rebounds 2% a minute later: "Markets are up because tariffs can't stop the American economy."

rubyn00bie 7y ago

There isn't any difference both are empirically absolute bullshit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brownian_model_of_financial_markets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brownian_model_of_financial_ma...

IfOnlyYouKnew 7y ago
That... doesn't quite work, logically? Observing that there is no predictable "signal" in stock price changes only proves that whatever you're using to make predictions is unable to beat the market (the "efficient market hypothesis"). Stock prices are very obviously not completely random, in that they tend towards $0 when companies go bankrupt. There is some randomness, or at least unpredictability, in stock prices. This is called "volatility". But the model operates on the very small tick-to-tick scale, not wether UBER is priced at $45 or $450.

loceng 7y ago

Well, if it's actually possible to read what stars and their relative positions mean for specific people based on when/where they were born - to understand large holistic patterns - then perhaps there are market gurus who have developed the same knowledge, skill, understanding of the larger picture - an intuition developed perhaps trusting your feelings. And yes, the majority are weighted towards being "sheep" who are in the mode of being indoctrinated - following the crowd..