4 ms·

While the idea of the article is entertaining, the data is ridiculous. 3 data points: '00, '05, and '10. The policy came into play in '07. Yet the downward t

While the idea of the article is entertaining, the data is ridiculous. 3 data points: '00, '05, and '10. The policy came into play in '07. Yet the downward trend was already visible in '05. It barely changed for '10. A more interesting (and honest) take of the data is in women's desire for more children. It was on a decline in '05, but ticked up sharply for '10. So if I was writing this, I would have said: "After men in Spain got paternity leave, women wanted more kids."

magduf 7y ago
Here's my snarky theory about it: after men got paternity leave, they were forced to be at home and help with the child-rearing, which took some of the burden off the mothers. This made the mothers want more kids because now they didn't have to do so much work. However, now the men got to see firsthand what a pain in the ass kids are, instead of being able to relegate that work to their wives, so now they don't want so many.
- Kurtz79 7y ago
  That is basically what the articles is saying, although not in your terms. "After paternity leave was instituted, surveys of Spanish men ages 21 to 40 showed they desired fewer children than before. Farré and González think that spending more time with their children—or the prospect of having to do so—may have made men more acutely aware of the effort and costs associated with childrearing, and, as the researchers put it, “shifted their preferences from child quantity to quality.”" And also that that the data really cannot be used to demonstrate their point, so, whatever, another research that was able to generate a media article.
- nickelcitymario 7y ago
  The (very limited) data supports the first part of your theory. The second part isn't supported by their data, since it shows the downward trend in men's desire for kids started years before the policy came into place.
- basetop 7y ago
  That's the pathetic "liberal" sexist caricature you see on TV and media. And like most caricature in media, it's nonsense. The problem is that both men and women are deciding to having less kids. And that trend has continued with maternity leave, paternity leave and even paying people to have children. In poor countries, they have more kids. Is that because of your caricature or lack of it? Europe has provided great benefits to women and men to have more kids. Birth rates have declined. https://www.thelocal.it/20180627/italy-declining-birthrate-population https://www.thelocal.it/20180627/italy-declining-birthrate-p... Governments are even paying women to have kids and that hasn't helped. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/11/03/141943008/when-governments-pay-people-to-have-babies https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/11/03/141943008/when... The only thing that increases birth rates is an increase of poorer and less educated women. The wealthier and better educated women are, the less children they have. That is the only consistent correlation across ethnicities, cultures, religions, etc. Educate women and reach a certain level of wealth and birth rates drop. It's true in japan https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/japans-births-and-marriages-spiral-to-record-low/ https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/japans-births-and-marriages-... korea, china to iran and all the way to europe. If we really wanted to increase birth rates, kicking females out of school and removing any and all benefits would be better than increasing benefits. It's counterintuitive, but it's true. Or maybe we could accept that population decline is going to happen and prepare for that? It's strange how we think we can bribe women to have more children. That's never going to happen, so we should learn to live with our current reality.
  - bazooka_penguin 7y ago
    I think you've walked around the part where traditional cultures actively pushed women to get married and have kids, forced even, through arranged marriages or selling them to basically go live with the man's family. It's not so much as drawing back benefits as it is literally forcing them either through extreme social pressure and isolation or physical force. Anything less has been a slow decline as we slowly drift away from that sort of strict culture I recall at least a few articles suggesting that among ancient humans far fewer men than women engage in reproduction, suggesting that only a handful of men (proportionally speaking) were selected to breed by a larger population of women. I hate that it sounds like incel speak but we could probably see more babies if we 1) get rid of monogamous culture altogether and 2) limit birth control options. The alternative is to return to a stricter marriage and baby making enforcement culture. I'm not advocating for anything here to be clear. I just dont think theres a "solution" that lands perfectly where everyone wants it to
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
thevenkataswamy 7y ago
So glad someone mentioned this. There are probably some hidden variables explaining fatherhood preferences that have nothing to do with paternity leave. Desire for a child and birth-rates aren't exactly the same, but maybe the reasons for declining birth rates also explain the decline in desire for a child in this study? https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate
holub008 7y ago
There's a bunch of comments in this thread from people who did not read even the abstract of the study. Those 3 data points were used in a graphic, which is not relevant to the actual experiment performed. Their experiment focused on cohorts of "parents who were (just) entitled to the new paternity leave" and "(just) ineligible parents". This design provides quasi-randomization so that any prior "downward trend" is not relevant, and clearly there are more than "3 data points" at play.

magduf 7y ago

Here's my snarky theory about it: after men got paternity leave, they were forced to be at home and help with the child-rearing, which took some of the burden off the mothers. This made the mothers want more kids because now they didn't have to do so much work. However, now the men got to see firsthand what a pain in the ass kids are, instead of being able to relegate that work to their wives, so now they don't want so many.

Kurtz79 7y ago
That is basically what the articles is saying, although not in your terms. "After paternity leave was instituted, surveys of Spanish men ages 21 to 40 showed they desired fewer children than before. Farré and González think that spending more time with their children—or the prospect of having to do so—may have made men more acutely aware of the effort and costs associated with childrearing, and, as the researchers put it, “shifted their preferences from child quantity to quality.”" And also that that the data really cannot be used to demonstrate their point, so, whatever, another research that was able to generate a media article.
nickelcitymario 7y ago
The (very limited) data supports the first part of your theory. The second part isn't supported by their data, since it shows the downward trend in men's desire for kids started years before the policy came into place.
basetop 7y ago
That's the pathetic "liberal" sexist caricature you see on TV and media. And like most caricature in media, it's nonsense. The problem is that both men and women are deciding to having less kids. And that trend has continued with maternity leave, paternity leave and even paying people to have children. In poor countries, they have more kids. Is that because of your caricature or lack of it? Europe has provided great benefits to women and men to have more kids. Birth rates have declined. https://www.thelocal.it/20180627/italy-declining-birthrate-population https://www.thelocal.it/20180627/italy-declining-birthrate-p... Governments are even paying women to have kids and that hasn't helped. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/11/03/141943008/when-governments-pay-people-to-have-babies https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/11/03/141943008/when... The only thing that increases birth rates is an increase of poorer and less educated women. The wealthier and better educated women are, the less children they have. That is the only consistent correlation across ethnicities, cultures, religions, etc. Educate women and reach a certain level of wealth and birth rates drop. It's true in japan https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/japans-births-and-marriages-spiral-to-record-low/ https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/japans-births-and-marriages-... korea, china to iran and all the way to europe. If we really wanted to increase birth rates, kicking females out of school and removing any and all benefits would be better than increasing benefits. It's counterintuitive, but it's true. Or maybe we could accept that population decline is going to happen and prepare for that? It's strange how we think we can bribe women to have more children. That's never going to happen, so we should learn to live with our current reality.
- bazooka_penguin 7y ago
  I think you've walked around the part where traditional cultures actively pushed women to get married and have kids, forced even, through arranged marriages or selling them to basically go live with the man's family. It's not so much as drawing back benefits as it is literally forcing them either through extreme social pressure and isolation or physical force. Anything less has been a slow decline as we slowly drift away from that sort of strict culture I recall at least a few articles suggesting that among ancient humans far fewer men than women engage in reproduction, suggesting that only a handful of men (proportionally speaking) were selected to breed by a larger population of women. I hate that it sounds like incel speak but we could probably see more babies if we 1) get rid of monogamous culture altogether and 2) limit birth control options. The alternative is to return to a stricter marriage and baby making enforcement culture. I'm not advocating for anything here to be clear. I just dont think theres a "solution" that lands perfectly where everyone wants it to
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

thevenkataswamy 7y ago

So glad someone mentioned this. There are probably some hidden variables explaining fatherhood preferences that have nothing to do with paternity leave. Desire for a child and birth-rates aren't exactly the same, but maybe the reasons for declining birth rates also explain the decline in desire for a child in this study? https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate

holub008 7y ago

There's a bunch of comments in this thread from people who did not read even the abstract of the study. Those 3 data points were used in a graphic, which is not relevant to the actual experiment performed. Their experiment focused on cohorts of "parents who were (just) entitled to the new paternity leave" and "(just) ineligible parents". This design provides quasi-randomization so that any prior "downward trend" is not relevant, and clearly there are more than "3 data points" at play.