I base that on a combination of two assumptions: 1. Coal is used for for generating electricity because it's the cheapest. Its buyers aren't loyal friends, its

I base that on a combination of two assumptions: 1. Coal is used for for generating electricity because it's the cheapest. Its buyers aren't loyal friends, its buyers want the cheapest. 2. The price for new wind/solar plants is dropping quickly, and if that goes on at the same rate as recently, then at some point in the next few years, building new wind/solar plants becomes a cheaper source of electricity than operating existing coal-fired plants. The price might not go on dropping, but I think there's a real chance it does, and if it does drop far enough and coal's customers actually want the cheapest, then one of the two key markets for coal withers as fast as customers can switch. EDIT: That ">50%" might be high. I glanced at wikipedia: "About 75% of coal mined in Australia is exported […] and of the balance most is used in electricity generation" and: "Coking coal generated A$22.4 billion of export revenue in 2012/13 financial year with thermal coal bringing in A$16.1 billion". But I mixed up value and volume.