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I'm only starting to hear that Uber intends to replace public transportation: > Our Personal Mobility TAM consists of 11.9 trillion miles per year, representin
by mr_tristan 7y ago
I'm only starting to hear that Uber intends to replace public transportation:
> Our Personal Mobility TAM consists of 11.9 trillion miles per year, representing an estimated $5.7 trillion market opportunity in 175 countries. We include all passenger vehicle miles and all public transportation miles in all countries globally in our TAM, including those we have yet to enter, except for the 20 countries that we address through our ownership positions in our minority-owned affiliates, over which we have no operational control other than approval rights with respect to certain material corporate actions. We estimate that these 20 countries represent an additional estimated market opportunity of approximately $0.5 trillion.
See "Our Market Opportunity" section in the S1 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000119312519103850/d647752ds1.htm#toc647752_4 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000119312519...)
This seems quite ... optimistic to me. I'm not sure how many public transportation companies actually operate at a significant profit, such that they can undercut. It also seems risky, in that they might generate a huge backlash if they try to do the whole "we're just gonna loss lead until we're dominant, then jack up the price" strategy.
I'm guessing there is section of the population that says "screw it, I'll rent a car" where public transportation is quite slow, but replacing public transportation for poorer people is just going to be losing money. Given that Uber is already losing money, I'm just wondering how you'd develop a model where this TAM makes sense.
- b_tterc_p 7y agoThere are many profitable subsections of public transit. The issue is the it’s a PUBLIC resource. They’re not run to maximize profit. They also run many lines which are not profitable. If a private company tried to steal the business of the profitable subsections it would put the non profitable ones at risk. Smart governments would outlaw such competition.
- notahacker 7y agoThey wouldn't even need to outlaw competition in most cases of profitable subsections of public transport, because a profitable commuter train into $busycity /= a potentially profitable service driving commuters in large numbers of small vehicles through heavy traffic to the same destination...
- bduerst 7y agoRight, but is Uber going to offer light-rail ridesharing now? Many of these profitable systems have fixed public infrastructure in place that contributes to that variable profitability.
- mr_tristan 7y agoRight, this feels like they inflated their TAM a whole lot. They are a "luxury option" already today, so ... I'm not sure what they're replacing. If they truly are gonna take on public transportation, I'm not sure how they could stop governments from shutting them out.