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If you believe in Tesla autonomous driving you should just buy Tesla stock.

asdf21 7y ago
I would, but them being successful at autonomous driving is already priced in, at least to some extent. Do you think Tesla stock is currently undervalued, assuming they will become a leader in autonomous driving within the next five years?
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- manacit 7y ago
  It's not obvious to me that Uber stock is not also priced for a future where autonomous driving solves a lot of their current problems, do you disagree?
- kjksf 7y ago
  Waymo valuation is estimated at somewhere between $80 to $175 billion (https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2019/funding-valuation-self-driving-car-technology/ https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2019/funding-...). Tesla is currently at under $50 billion. Currrently the markets seem to value Tesla's self-driving technology at about $0. I happen to think that Tesla has about the same chances of winning self-driving as Waymo, so it should be valued, today, at least $80 billion + whatever the value of car and energy business is (let's say $30 billion). And those are valuation today, when neither company has demonstrated a working product. When they actually start a robotaxi service, even in very limited way, the valuation will skyrocket because the consensus is that this is a market that favors natural oligopoloy (2-3 national providers) and the revenue potential is in hundreds of billions, which would lead, eventually, to a trillion-size valuation.
- reitzensteinm 7y ago
  Tesla has a market cap of $42bn, so an EV of under $60bn. If you believe Tesla will be the first to market with their autonomy network, it's hard to see that as anything other than a bargain. They'd potentially bankrupt Uber if they're still paying for drivers while attempting to catch up. It would be a hell of a moat; anyone who wants to compete has to burn a ton of cash to develop autonomy and buy a massive fleet. I don't think the market has priced it in; I think it has pretty much disregarded Tesla's claim of leadership.

I would, but them being successful at autonomous driving is already priced in, at least to some extent. Do you think Tesla stock is currently undervalued, assuming they will become a leader in autonomous driving within the next five years?

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
manacit 7y ago
It's not obvious to me that Uber stock is not also priced for a future where autonomous driving solves a lot of their current problems, do you disagree?
kjksf 7y ago
Waymo valuation is estimated at somewhere between $80 to $175 billion (https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2019/funding-valuation-self-driving-car-technology/ https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2019/funding-...). Tesla is currently at under $50 billion. Currrently the markets seem to value Tesla's self-driving technology at about $0. I happen to think that Tesla has about the same chances of winning self-driving as Waymo, so it should be valued, today, at least $80 billion + whatever the value of car and energy business is (let's say $30 billion). And those are valuation today, when neither company has demonstrated a working product. When they actually start a robotaxi service, even in very limited way, the valuation will skyrocket because the consensus is that this is a market that favors natural oligopoloy (2-3 national providers) and the revenue potential is in hundreds of billions, which would lead, eventually, to a trillion-size valuation.
reitzensteinm 7y ago
Tesla has a market cap of $42bn, so an EV of under $60bn. If you believe Tesla will be the first to market with their autonomy network, it's hard to see that as anything other than a bargain. They'd potentially bankrupt Uber if they're still paying for drivers while attempting to catch up. It would be a hell of a moat; anyone who wants to compete has to burn a ton of cash to develop autonomy and buy a massive fleet. I don't think the market has priced it in; I think it has pretty much disregarded Tesla's claim of leadership.