4 ms·

Nothing is obvious when it comes to how autonomous vehicles will shake out.

by fullshark 8y ago

DevX101 8y ago
That autonomous driving is coming is inevitable. The scale and timing I can debate though.
- Tiktaalik 8y ago
  A moon base must have seemed inevitable to those in the 1960s too.
  - xmprt 8y ago
    1960s is a bit too optimistic. I personally think it'll happen in the 1970s.
  - DevX101 8y ago
    If building a base on the moon created wealth and would have rewarded the builders with billions of dollars, then yes, we'd probably have a base on the moon by now.
  - bduerst 8y ago
    Not much money in moon bases. Transportation industry is over half a trillion $ though.
- Fricken 8y ago
  Chris Urmson, co-founder of Aurora and former cto if the Google self driving car project doesn't expect to see autonomous vehicles such as robotaxis scale broadly for 30-50 years. His time frames were a fair but more aggressive a few years ago before he had hit self-driving car puberty. Autopilot's true believers have yet to recognize the full scope of the problem.
  - Gibbon1 8y ago
    > Autopilot's true believers have yet to recognize the full scope of the problem. Those guys have their head in the sand about autonomous cars effects on congestion.
    - ghaff 8y ago
      Well that’s another issue. I don’t drive into my relatively nearby major city much these days because of traffic (and because it’s nearly an hour in any case). If I could be driven at minimal incremental cost? A whole lot more. And I doubt I’m atypical.
  - asdf21 8y ago
    He also says you'll see small scale deployments within 5 years.
empath75 8y ago
If I want to invest in autonomous vehicles why am I buying stock in a money losing taxi company instead of a company that makes money and is doing self driving car research.
- gamblor956 8y ago
  Are you referring to buying Alphabet stock (Waymo) or GM stock (Cruze)? Uber and Tesla are both highly unprofitable companies, so you couldn't be referring to either of those.
  - empath75 8y ago
    Exactly.

Nothing is obvious when it comes to how autonomous vehicles will shake out.

DevX101 8y ago

That autonomous driving is coming is inevitable. The scale and timing I can debate though.

Tiktaalik 8y ago
A moon base must have seemed inevitable to those in the 1960s too.
- xmprt 8y ago
  1960s is a bit too optimistic. I personally think it'll happen in the 1970s.
- DevX101 8y ago
  If building a base on the moon created wealth and would have rewarded the builders with billions of dollars, then yes, we'd probably have a base on the moon by now.
- bduerst 8y ago
  Not much money in moon bases. Transportation industry is over half a trillion $ though.
Fricken 8y ago
Chris Urmson, co-founder of Aurora and former cto if the Google self driving car project doesn't expect to see autonomous vehicles such as robotaxis scale broadly for 30-50 years. His time frames were a fair but more aggressive a few years ago before he had hit self-driving car puberty. Autopilot's true believers have yet to recognize the full scope of the problem.
- Gibbon1 8y ago
  > Autopilot's true believers have yet to recognize the full scope of the problem. Those guys have their head in the sand about autonomous cars effects on congestion.
  - ghaff 8y ago
    Well that’s another issue. I don’t drive into my relatively nearby major city much these days because of traffic (and because it’s nearly an hour in any case). If I could be driven at minimal incremental cost? A whole lot more. And I doubt I’m atypical.
- asdf21 8y ago
  He also says you'll see small scale deployments within 5 years.

empath75 8y ago

If I want to invest in autonomous vehicles why am I buying stock in a money losing taxi company instead of a company that makes money and is doing self driving car research.

gamblor956 8y ago
Are you referring to buying Alphabet stock (Waymo) or GM stock (Cruze)? Uber and Tesla are both highly unprofitable companies, so you couldn't be referring to either of those.
- empath75 8y ago
  Exactly.