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There's one thing I'm wondering about... I understand that the coal-friendly parties don't want to restrict mining. But what are they saying about export and de

by Arnt 8y ago

There's one thing I'm wondering about... I understand that the coal-friendly parties don't want to restrict mining. But what are they saying about export and demand and markets and all that? Coal has few friends on the buyer side. There seems to be real chance that the demand for Australian coal drops by >50% in the next few years. What are the coal-friendly parties in Australia saying about that?

catmanjan 8y ago
I think the implication is that if that is what is going to happen, then that is capitalism solving the ethical problem for them - the government isn't running the mines and the companies will stop once they are no longer profitable.
jussij 8y ago
It is hard to know why the current Liberal government is such a coal-friendly party. My take on this is I think the Liberal party, which once took a centre right position has now been hijacked by the far right wing of the party. Many of these right wingers don't believe climate change is real and in fact the leader of that right wing faction has been quoted as saying 'climate change is crap'. > There seems to be real chance that the demand for Australian coal drops by >50% in the next few years. Australian coal will be still be selling for many years to come, only because it is generally of a much higher quality than coal from other source. But it is definitely a dead end industry and the country would be wise to start moving away from coal as a source of income.
roenxi 8y ago
I'm not sure it has been publicly deabted to shake out who stands where, but probably a classic market-oriented position of "if people will buy it, we'll sell it. If not, we won't". Same as was applied to the manufacturing industry. Coal is used to make steel. Unless the mettalurgists have come up with something I don't know about that isn't going away any time soon - my understanding is that Queensland coal is mostly metallurgical. Victorian coal is too dodgy to export, so overseas buyers don't matter. NSW and the Hunter Valley are very exposed to the thermal market. They sink or swim based on how much gets burned in power generation.
mikemotherwell 8y ago
> Coal has few friends on the buyer side Which type: metallurgic (used to make steel) or thermal (for power)? Metallurgic coal is the more expensive, loved kind (as you need it to make buildings) and that is what Australia produces, at ~40% of total exports by volume (not sure via value). https://minerals.org.au/sites/default/files/181012%20Commodity%20Insights%20Met%20Coal%20Report.pdf https://minerals.org.au/sites/default/files/181012%20Commodi... BTW: that is 3X the next biggest metallurgic coal exporter (the USA). > There seems to be real chance that the demand for Australian coal drops by >50% in the next few years Where are you getting that figure from? Coking coal looks pretty solidly in growth from what I know.
- Arnt 8y ago
  I base that on a combination of two assumptions: 1. Coal is used for for generating electricity because it's the cheapest. Its buyers aren't loyal friends, its buyers want the cheapest. 2. The price for new wind/solar plants is dropping quickly, and if that goes on at the same rate as recently, then at some point in the next few years, building new wind/solar plants becomes a cheaper source of electricity than operating existing coal-fired plants. The price might not go on dropping, but I think there's a real chance it does, and if it does drop far enough and coal's customers actually want the cheapest, then one of the two key markets for coal withers as fast as customers can switch. EDIT: That ">50%" might be high. I glanced at wikipedia: "About 75% of coal mined in Australia is exported […] and of the balance most is used in electricity generation" and: "Coking coal generated A$22.4 billion of export revenue in 2012/13 financial year with thermal coal bringing in A$16.1 billion". But I mixed up value and volume.

by Arnt 8y ago

catmanjan 8y ago

I think the implication is that if that is what is going to happen, then that is capitalism solving the ethical problem for them - the government isn't running the mines and the companies will stop once they are no longer profitable.

jussij 8y ago

It is hard to know why the current Liberal government is such a coal-friendly party. My take on this is I think the Liberal party, which once took a centre right position has now been hijacked by the far right wing of the party. Many of these right wingers don't believe climate change is real and in fact the leader of that right wing faction has been quoted as saying 'climate change is crap'. > There seems to be real chance that the demand for Australian coal drops by >50% in the next few years. Australian coal will be still be selling for many years to come, only because it is generally of a much higher quality than coal from other source. But it is definitely a dead end industry and the country would be wise to start moving away from coal as a source of income.

roenxi 8y ago

I'm not sure it has been publicly deabted to shake out who stands where, but probably a classic market-oriented position of "if people will buy it, we'll sell it. If not, we won't". Same as was applied to the manufacturing industry. Coal is used to make steel. Unless the mettalurgists have come up with something I don't know about that isn't going away any time soon - my understanding is that Queensland coal is mostly metallurgical. Victorian coal is too dodgy to export, so overseas buyers don't matter. NSW and the Hunter Valley are very exposed to the thermal market. They sink or swim based on how much gets burned in power generation.

mikemotherwell 8y ago

> Coal has few friends on the buyer side Which type: metallurgic (used to make steel) or thermal (for power)? Metallurgic coal is the more expensive, loved kind (as you need it to make buildings) and that is what Australia produces, at ~40% of total exports by volume (not sure via value). https://minerals.org.au/sites/default/files/181012%20Commodity%20Insights%20Met%20Coal%20Report.pdf https://minerals.org.au/sites/default/files/181012%20Commodi... BTW: that is 3X the next biggest metallurgic coal exporter (the USA). > There seems to be real chance that the demand for Australian coal drops by >50% in the next few years Where are you getting that figure from? Coking coal looks pretty solidly in growth from what I know.

Arnt 8y ago
I base that on a combination of two assumptions: 1. Coal is used for for generating electricity because it's the cheapest. Its buyers aren't loyal friends, its buyers want the cheapest. 2. The price for new wind/solar plants is dropping quickly, and if that goes on at the same rate as recently, then at some point in the next few years, building new wind/solar plants becomes a cheaper source of electricity than operating existing coal-fired plants. The price might not go on dropping, but I think there's a real chance it does, and if it does drop far enough and coal's customers actually want the cheapest, then one of the two key markets for coal withers as fast as customers can switch. EDIT: That ">50%" might be high. I glanced at wikipedia: "About 75% of coal mined in Australia is exported […] and of the balance most is used in electricity generation" and: "Coking coal generated A$22.4 billion of export revenue in 2012/13 financial year with thermal coal bringing in A$16.1 billion". But I mixed up value and volume.