3 ms·
I see a bunch of comments here saying basically that "today's luxury properties are tomorrow's affordable properties". I don't know where this myth originated b
by cletus 8y ago
I see a bunch of comments here saying basically that "today's luxury properties are tomorrow's affordable properties". I don't know where this myth originated but it's exactly that, a myth.
Look at Manhattan's most expensive buildings in terms of price per square foot (which can be north of $5000!). Some, like 15 Central Park West and One57 and some others on 57th Street, are new but many are not. Famously there's the San Remo building (which is ~100 years old), Walker Tower in Chelsea and a number of other buildings on Park Avenue and Fifth Avenue that are a century old, give or take, and not remotely affordable.
There are factors why these buildings will basically never be "affordable", namely:
- They may have ceilings in the order of 14-18'
- They may have floors and ceilings that are 1' thick or more;
- Land prices are extremely high.
So even though some of these apartments might be "only" 2000 square feet, they occupy the space of an apartment that might be as much as 2-4x as large due to the way the building is built. A stone's throw from Walker Tower you'll find postwars that sell for under $1500/sq ft, for example.
I'm actually a big fan of cities not becoming ghost towns of empty condos and houses that are nothing more than a place to park capital for the ultra-wealthy. Australia, for example, forbids foreign purchases of anything other than new builds.
Developers build ultra-luxury condos because it's way more profitable. Part of the reason is the demand but another part is the cost structure is wrong and New York City and state bear some of the blame for this eg [1]. That's just insurance. Construction itself has become unaffordable. Many capital projects exist in the US today that would simply be cost-prohibitive to build or replace now.
I'm all for an extreme measure here: the world's large urban centers should start taxing homeowners on worldwide income. No double taxation. There are already mechanisms for this. You want to own property in NYC or Vancouver or San Francisco? Great. You're now a resident taxpayer. You can always seize the property if they won't pay.
One thing about Vancouver in particular, and this probably applies to Canada in general: WTF is up with a median wage of C$50k? How is it the US can afford to pay US$350k+ for a SWE in NYC or SF that might earn less than C$100k in Vancouver? How did that happen?
In the developed world there basically hasn't been an increase in real wages since 1980 while the ultra-wealthy get richer and richer. With no wars or revolutions in sight to redistribute that wealth (which, historically, has been what's happened when wealth inequality gets too out of whack), something needs to be done to address that.
[1] https://www.constructiondive.com/news/critics-blame-nycs-scaffold-law-for-rocketing-insurance-fees/529039/ https://www.constructiondive.com/news/critics-blame-nycs-sca...
- bitreality 8y agoGood points. It's surprising that these cities are facing such a major housing crisis, and still allow foreign purchases of residential property. If someone wants to buy a house, they should intend to live there. This is especially true for non-residents. Stop allowing your housing market to be a speculative tool for people who are not even a part of your community.
- hn_throwaway_99 8y agoThe reason these older apartments (known in NYC anyway as "pre-war") are in demand, though, is they were built with much higher quality - as you point out, high ceilings, thick walls, etc. All of those places have been renovated (many times in fact), but the value lies in the higher quality older construction, and importantly, that fact that that construction does not exist going forward is a big reason for the value in those apartments. I personally have seen new "luxury" condos in a major American city built in 2000 being devalued because since that time there have been many more "more luxury" condos built, to the point where the older condos lack features that make it difficult to compete with the newer buildings.
- raquo 8y agoIt seems that literally every new condo for sale in Vancouver is marketed as "luxury". Doesn't have to be downtown. Doesn't have to be well built or have extra high ceilings. Everything is expensive here.
- jpetso 8y agoNot to defend the wacky compensation vs. house prices ratio, but the SWE who earns less than C$100k in Vancouver is not the same SWE who's going to make US$350k+ just by moving to NYC or SF. Not by a long shot, or they've been exceedingly bad at salary negotiation before and suddenly turn into an expert player upon emigration. (That said, there does seem to be somewhat of a lack of higher-end developer jobs compared to parts of the US.)
- seizethecheese 8y agoPerhaps a more accurate statement might be “today’s new luxury unit turns an existing luxury unit into a middle class unit”.