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I've been exposed to air toxics risk assessments through my work. The problem, in my mind, is not the toxics we're facing in our homes (or even outdoors). It'
by hcurtiss 7y ago
I've been exposed to air toxics risk assessments through my work. The problem, in my mind, is not the toxics we're facing in our homes (or even outdoors). It's that humans are really bad at understanding risk. Let's imagine an annual Thanksgiving dinner presents an excess lifetime cancer risk of 2 (made up number -- probably much lower). Many people would find that unacceptable. But why? Many activities we engage in every day present much more material risk. For instance, this article says the odds of dying in a car crash are approximately 10.7 per 100k. That is 10,000 in a million. Yet we gladly get behind the wheel every day.
Noncancer effects are gauged in terms of multiples of the lowest observed effect level or the no observed effect level. If across a spectrum of exposures, we observed no effect at a certain level, that would be our NOEL. Of course, the observed effect could be a runny nose. 100x the NOEL could still be a runny nose (it could, in fact, be no adverse effect at all), but people see 100x the benchmark level and freak out.
In my mind, we really need to reshape this discussion around toxics. People are willing to suffer great costs to avoid hazards that do not, in fact, present material risks.
[1] https://www.cars.com/articles/are-the-odds-ever-in-your-favor-car-crashes-versus-other-fatalities-1420682154567/ https://www.cars.com/articles/are-the-odds-ever-in-your-favo...
- simple_phrases 7y ago> For instance, this article says the odds of dying in a car crash are approximately 10.7 per 100k. That is 10,000 in a million. There are ~30k automobile deaths in the US per year. Your figure is off by several orders of magnitude.
- hcurtiss 7y agoI would point you to the quote in the article I cite: "'Motor vehicle traffic' deaths in the U.S. in 2013, the most recent full year of data available, totaled 33,804, for a death rate of 10.7 per 100,000, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention." I believe the denominator is confined to drivers. No matter, there are dozens of other good examples to support my point that ordinary activities are much riskier than the levels of risk we talk about in the context of air toxics.
- coolgeek 7y agoThe problem was with your math. 10.7 per 100k != 10,000 in a million. 10.7 per 100k == 1.07 per 10k == 107 per 1000k (1m)
- hcurtiss 7y agoYou're correct. Moving too quick. And that, in turn, is still two orders of magnitude greater than 2. I think my point still stands. Thanks for the help.