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Imagine you were able to find the magical instrument to bet on this event. Let's simplify and say its based on shorting both RMB:USD and these secondary foreign
by mrtron 7y ago
Imagine you were able to find the magical instrument to bet on this event. Let's simplify and say its based on shorting both RMB:USD and these secondary foreign real estate markets. (the details don't really matter much for this argument)
I first heard this IDENTICAL storyline in 2002. This magical instrument has been shit over the last 20 years. RMB:USD is suspiciously flat by design. Real estate in Canada as mentioned has skyrocketed.
The long term bet you are proposing has failed 4 for 4. Your near term bet has failed 10+ out of 10+.
- ethbro 7y agoAren't all macroeconomic short plays, by design, about timing? In other words, they all fail unless you can accurately predict when a drop will occur. Consequently you'd expect that even perfect short plays often fail.