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This may never happen 1. China is converting as much of there funny money Yuan into Gold as possible. This helps bolster the idea that China can pay their deb
by gscott 7y ago
This may never happen
1. China is converting as much of there funny money Yuan into Gold as possible. This helps bolster the idea that China can pay their debts. https://bloom.bg/2I5TYME https://bloom.bg/2I5TYME
2. China monetary policy is run through banks. When a bank is to far insolvent they will make bad banks and put all of the insolvent loans into those. https://reut.rs/2WvG2zb https://reut.rs/2WvG2zb
3. When China has enough gold to give external investors confidence they can sell off half of their Treasury holdings, create the good / bad banks, and re-engineer the economy. Leaving foreigners on the hook. https://bit.ly/2H7zdxf https://bit.ly/2H7zdxf, https://bit.ly/2vOA1li https://bit.ly/2vOA1li, https://s.nikkei.com/2WgZRuD https://s.nikkei.com/2WgZRuD
4. The world wants cheap stuff. While foreigners will be unhappy they lost their investments they will keep buying from China and China will have a soft-landing from this upheaval.
5. China won't at that point be able to afford to buy any treasury bonds. The US Treasury will be forced to print money and inflation will go up along with various problems. This will force investors back into China because the US doesn't look like it is any better off then China is. It is a lot like someone who declares bankruptcy being able to get credit again pretty quickly.
6. To make sure productive members of China's society work China could make less productive members into caregivers helping to relieve some societal stress.
7. China's government owns part of a lot of private and public companies along with China Utilities. They can raise money by privatization like France has done. https://on.ft.com/2lN2x1F https://on.ft.com/2lN2x1F
- MR4D 7y agoSome responses: #1, China is going to have to buy a lot more gold. They only have about 1/4 as much gold as we do. And if they buy too fast, they'll push up the price, which hurts their currency. Not saying you're wrong, but there are limits here. https://moneyweek.com/499249/how-much-gold-does-china-have-a-lot-more-than-you-think/ https://moneyweek.com/499249/how-much-gold-does-china-have-a... #2 - many ways to deal with this, but it has to be in balance #3 - I don't understand your - can you elaborate? #4 - not at the cost of seeing their economies whither up and disappear. An aging demographic curve in most countries is already going to do damage - giving the rest of the country away won't help. We're already seeing increased protectionism around the world in different forms (e.g. the US with tariffs, the EU with regulations, etc.) One example is here: https://www.nwitimes.com/business/local/arcelormittal-idling-steel-mills-in-europe/article_e635ff12-b2d1-5380-b67c-18db0cdc099d.html https://www.nwitimes.com/business/local/arcelormittal-idling... 5 - Not all bad things are created equal. Check out this and read the text next to the graph titled, "China Population Growth": http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/china-population/ http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/china-population/ 6 - this doesn't work with an aging population. The demographic curve hurts (see #5 above)