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Did you try running the forecast with a log ceiling to control for the trajectory a bit? Or would that only be a concern of yours if you had to forecast past a
by jerednel 7y ago
Did you try running the forecast with a log ceiling to control for the trajectory a bit? Or would that only be a concern of yours if you had to forecast past a couple of years? I find that when I use Prophet to forecast down to the day I end up creating initial forecasts with heavy log ceilings to prevent unreasonable estimates of the future and then end up removing the ceiling once enough history is established to provide a resaonable baseline.