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Mr. Bush also shared a private exchange with Chinese President Hu Jintao in which he told the Chinese leader that the thing he worried most about and that kept

Mr. Bush also shared a private exchange with Chinese President Hu Jintao in which he told the Chinese leader that the thing he worried most about and that kept him up at night was another attack on the United States. Mr. Bush said he then asked Hu, "What keeps you up at night?" Hu responded, "25 million new jobs a year." [1] I think it's clear that China has a lot more to lose in this trade war. The bargain that the Chinese people have made with the government is that they will sacrifice personal liberties for economic prosperity. Once the latter is put into jeopardy, chaos will ensue. [1] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/11/15/decision_points_an_interview_with_george_w_bush_1079a0.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/11/15/decisi...

spectramax 7y ago
I found your statement about sacrificing personal liberties for economic prosperity a fascinating way to abstractly summarize CCP's rule. I resonate with you - I think the Chinese government is hot-pacing through economic high in the short term but there are major consequences if they overreach. The more they do so, the more they get push back from the rest of the world - Streisand effect infiltrates the general populace if they're unhappy (currently, China is pulling millions out of poverty - a good thing) and then you see real consequences of trading liberty for economic stagnancy. In game theory, "a single hawk in a population of doves" is an inherently unstable state - Hawks will lure other Doves to follow Hawk-like behavior and eventually you'll have majority of hawks struggling to survive. This behavior will oscillate between two unstable points until hawk/dov ratio equilibrium is reached. The Chinese government has employed a number of hawk-like behaviors in the global economy - cut loose IP, subsidies for local firms, state-owned enterprises bypassing law, currency manipulation, driving-out non-Chinese firms that pose threat of domination, IP theft, cloning, etc. for short-term gains. I don't see how this behavior can be tolerated for long.
- thefounder 7y ago
  Once China becomes a/the leader it develops its own technology and prevent others from using/stealing it, just like the US did.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
Balgair 7y ago
It's true to some degree here in the US as well. Look at Donny's approval ratings. They started to lessen as the government shutdown went onwards and when the market was not doing well in December and have only recently recovered. if you look at all the past president's approval ratings, they tend to take a hit when the economy is not doing well. I think that the assesment that the Chinese people have traded libery for prosperity is right, but is part of a larger mechanism. Many countries have this bargin in place. Ceasar pillaged his way through Gaul and Germania and was loved by his people (though there is a LOT more to Cesar) and Octavian largely continued this. Trajan did the same in Dacia and just plain gave out money to the plebian class. G. W. Bush just gave everyone a check too and his approval ratings went up. Empires tend to be extractive by nature, funneling 'wealth' from the frontiers to the capitals. As a species, technology has largely allowed us to open up new frontiers like never before and extract a lot of weath from those areas (deeper oil, sparser gold, digital information, better nitrogen fixation leading to more grain per square meter, etc). Have we run out of low-hanging fruit here on Earth now? I think not, technology/knowledge isn't like that, it's more fractal. But I do think that the easy stuff, the gold just lying there on the ground, isn't here anymore, and the entropy of our economy is starting to pile up. Things will be just as good as today, largely, but we've got to understand that we're finite now. It won't get better at the same acceleration we've seen for 200 years.

spectramax 7y ago

I found your statement about sacrificing personal liberties for economic prosperity a fascinating way to abstractly summarize CCP's rule. I resonate with you - I think the Chinese government is hot-pacing through economic high in the short term but there are major consequences if they overreach. The more they do so, the more they get push back from the rest of the world - Streisand effect infiltrates the general populace if they're unhappy (currently, China is pulling millions out of poverty - a good thing) and then you see real consequences of trading liberty for economic stagnancy. In game theory, "a single hawk in a population of doves" is an inherently unstable state - Hawks will lure other Doves to follow Hawk-like behavior and eventually you'll have majority of hawks struggling to survive. This behavior will oscillate between two unstable points until hawk/dov ratio equilibrium is reached. The Chinese government has employed a number of hawk-like behaviors in the global economy - cut loose IP, subsidies for local firms, state-owned enterprises bypassing law, currency manipulation, driving-out non-Chinese firms that pose threat of domination, IP theft, cloning, etc. for short-term gains. I don't see how this behavior can be tolerated for long.

thefounder 7y ago
Once China becomes a/the leader it develops its own technology and prevent others from using/stealing it, just like the US did.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]

Balgair 7y ago

It's true to some degree here in the US as well. Look at Donny's approval ratings. They started to lessen as the government shutdown went onwards and when the market was not doing well in December and have only recently recovered. if you look at all the past president's approval ratings, they tend to take a hit when the economy is not doing well. I think that the assesment that the Chinese people have traded libery for prosperity is right, but is part of a larger mechanism. Many countries have this bargin in place. Ceasar pillaged his way through Gaul and Germania and was loved by his people (though there is a LOT more to Cesar) and Octavian largely continued this. Trajan did the same in Dacia and just plain gave out money to the plebian class. G. W. Bush just gave everyone a check too and his approval ratings went up. Empires tend to be extractive by nature, funneling 'wealth' from the frontiers to the capitals. As a species, technology has largely allowed us to open up new frontiers like never before and extract a lot of weath from those areas (deeper oil, sparser gold, digital information, better nitrogen fixation leading to more grain per square meter, etc). Have we run out of low-hanging fruit here on Earth now? I think not, technology/knowledge isn't like that, it's more fractal. But I do think that the easy stuff, the gold just lying there on the ground, isn't here anymore, and the entropy of our economy is starting to pile up. Things will be just as good as today, largely, but we've got to understand that we're finite now. It won't get better at the same acceleration we've seen for 200 years.