The good news is the mid- to high-end of the hard drive market will be the last to go as SSD can't compete there (yet). The bad news is that in the short term

The good news is the mid- to high-end of the hard drive market will be the last to go as SSD can't compete there (yet). The bad news is that in the short term I would expect progress in mechanical drives (both cost and absolute capacity) to slow even more than it already has over the last decade as the market opportunity will warrant less investment by storage companies. By the time the end game plays out, there will be cost effective alternatives. (whether or not they'll be available to consumers is a different question) Look at it this way: the optical drive/disc market has been 'dead' for years but you can still pick up a new DVD burner for ~$20. Hard drives will likely follow suit: at some point it won't make sense for hard drive manufacturers to invest in developing new drives, but they'll keep churning out the existing stuff for years and years until demand dries up. They've already done the expensive part (developing the drives, establishing supply chains, building the plants and setting up the manufacturing lines), and will keep doing the cheap part (actually making them) as long as there's a market.