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Auto loans seem to be the next crisis. One link for the argument and one against below: For: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/more-7-million-ame
by somberi 7y ago
Auto loans seem to be the next crisis. One link for the argument and one against below:
For: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/more-7-million-americans-are-seriously-behind-their-car-payments-n971016 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/more-7-millio...
Against: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-20/subprime-auto-loans-are-not-like-subprime-mortgages https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-20/subpri...
- sailfast 7y agoMy bet is corporate debt as it has more of a cascade risk systemically. The thing about the housing crisis was that it dropped asset prices and really pinched consumers. Failures in other areas like auto loans will likely pinch holders of the CDOs but only make it slightly harder to get a car loan. The transaction amounts are relatively low compared to housing. That said - corporate debt is in the trillions and if your favorite Fortune 500 goes belly up a bunch of jobs go with it. Not to mention the overall equity losses to those holding index funds. That said... my long term bearishness has not really been super well paid off haha. My hypotheses ain’t worth the bits they’re stored on.
- pmiller2 7y agoI agree that auto loans are an increasing risk these days. At least cars are much easier and legally more straightforward to repossess than houses, not to mention they cost a whole hell of a lot less.
- village-idiot 7y agoI work for an automotive adjacent company, I’m very worried.
- acchow 7y agoCar loans are an order of magnitude smaller than home loans. Also, people don't go buying more cars for speculative investment.