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Deals like this, as the article discusses, are not made before a race, they are made during a race. Typically (but not always) this happens toward the end of a

Deals like this, as the article discusses, are not made before a race, they are made during a race. Typically (but not always) this happens toward the end of a race, where competitors race prisoner’s dilemma of sorts: by working together, they can have a higher chance of clinching the 1 and 2 spots, but when one racer is demonstrably stronger than the other, the stronger rider might reasonably worry that the weaker rider will “defect” and sprint for first place. Working together improves their chance of a first-or-second finish, but might decrease their chance of a strictly first-place finish if the weaker rider defects and sprints for the finish. If the stronger rider defects and drops the weaker rider, they risk getting caught by the pack and not making a podium at all. The deal is that the weaker rider will take second, giving first place to the stronger rider and ensuring mutual cooperation that increases both their chances of a podium finish. In this instance, the weaker rider promised to cooperate and later defected.

QuotedForTruth 8y ago
I realize you already know this, but just to add to what you've said... It also makes a lot more sense in stage races. The win for the day's stage is not the only win to be had. The overall race win is based on combined time across all stages. Often someone who is in the running for the overall race win will make a deal with someone who isn't. By not attacking each other, their average speed can be higher. One rider gets to win the stage and the other gets the benefit of working together to finish the stage in the quickest possible time. This allows them to gain on their rivals for the overall win. In a single stage race, the win is mostly the only thing that matters.
- hammock 8y ago
  In that case aside from missing a stage win, it really doesn't hurt the stronger rider at all when the weaker rider defects. Wouldn't call that a prisoner's dilemma.
  - stouset 8y ago
    Of course it does. Assume Rider A believes (rightly) that they're stronger in the break than Rider B. If they don't bring Rider B along, they might have a 50% chance of making first place and a 50% chance of getting caught and losing in a bunch sprint (time-trialists don't generally make good sprinters and vice versa). If they do bring Rider B along, but Rider A does more work (perhaps Rider B is holding back a little bit, knowing they will try to steal the first-place finish) they might have an improved 75% chance of staying away from the pack but there's a 50% or greater chance that Rider B will sprint and win the finish. If they cooperate, Rider A has a 75% chance of first place and Rider B has a 75% chance of second place, with both having a 25% chance of a pack finish. If Rider A defects, Rider A has a 50% chance of a first-place finish and Rider B has a 0% chance of a podium finish. If Rider B defects, both Rider A and Rider B have a 37.5% chance of a first-place finish and a 75% chance of getting a podium. If Rider B values a 75% chance of second place higher than a 37.5% chance of a first place finish, they'll offer this deal. Note that this isn't strictly a Prisoner's Dilemma becuase there's no concept of a double-defection: if Rider A defects, Rider B won't have a chance to. Obviously in a real-world situation you won't know these percentages, but hopefully it illuminates how both sides benefit from cooperation but lose if they want to cooperate and but the other side defects.
    - hammock 8y ago
      Sorry I'm not following the way you laid it out. Here simply is how I think of it: A deal is made. If the weaker rider defects and wins the stage (as in OP story), the stronger rider still has a better time than he would have without the deal - thereby reducing his overall total time for the multi-stage race. The only thing he has to avoid (obviously) is making a deal with the SAME weaker rider for every stage.
      - TeMPOraL 8y ago
        If the stronger rider doesn't care about their podium position, he won't lose much because of the weaker driver defecting. But if he does care, then he does lose.
      - 8y ago
- stouset 8y ago
  > In a single stage race, the win is mostly the only thing that matters. You're right that this happens mostly in stage races, but it definitely happens in single-stage races too! If a rider is trying to get a category upgrade—say to Cat 1—they might make this offer knowing that it will help them get over the threshold even if they don't get first. Especially if they know they need these points in the next few races, they might make this deal rather than take the risk of not getting enough to qualify.

QuotedForTruth 8y ago

I realize you already know this, but just to add to what you've said... It also makes a lot more sense in stage races. The win for the day's stage is not the only win to be had. The overall race win is based on combined time across all stages. Often someone who is in the running for the overall race win will make a deal with someone who isn't. By not attacking each other, their average speed can be higher. One rider gets to win the stage and the other gets the benefit of working together to finish the stage in the quickest possible time. This allows them to gain on their rivals for the overall win. In a single stage race, the win is mostly the only thing that matters.

hammock 8y ago
In that case aside from missing a stage win, it really doesn't hurt the stronger rider at all when the weaker rider defects. Wouldn't call that a prisoner's dilemma.
- stouset 8y ago
  Of course it does. Assume Rider A believes (rightly) that they're stronger in the break than Rider B. If they don't bring Rider B along, they might have a 50% chance of making first place and a 50% chance of getting caught and losing in a bunch sprint (time-trialists don't generally make good sprinters and vice versa). If they do bring Rider B along, but Rider A does more work (perhaps Rider B is holding back a little bit, knowing they will try to steal the first-place finish) they might have an improved 75% chance of staying away from the pack but there's a 50% or greater chance that Rider B will sprint and win the finish. If they cooperate, Rider A has a 75% chance of first place and Rider B has a 75% chance of second place, with both having a 25% chance of a pack finish. If Rider A defects, Rider A has a 50% chance of a first-place finish and Rider B has a 0% chance of a podium finish. If Rider B defects, both Rider A and Rider B have a 37.5% chance of a first-place finish and a 75% chance of getting a podium. If Rider B values a 75% chance of second place higher than a 37.5% chance of a first place finish, they'll offer this deal. Note that this isn't strictly a Prisoner's Dilemma becuase there's no concept of a double-defection: if Rider A defects, Rider B won't have a chance to. Obviously in a real-world situation you won't know these percentages, but hopefully it illuminates how both sides benefit from cooperation but lose if they want to cooperate and but the other side defects.
  - hammock 8y ago
    Sorry I'm not following the way you laid it out. Here simply is how I think of it: A deal is made. If the weaker rider defects and wins the stage (as in OP story), the stronger rider still has a better time than he would have without the deal - thereby reducing his overall total time for the multi-stage race. The only thing he has to avoid (obviously) is making a deal with the SAME weaker rider for every stage.
    - TeMPOraL 8y ago
      If the stronger rider doesn't care about their podium position, he won't lose much because of the weaker driver defecting. But if he does care, then he does lose.
    - 8y ago
stouset 8y ago
> In a single stage race, the win is mostly the only thing that matters. You're right that this happens mostly in stage races, but it definitely happens in single-stage races too! If a rider is trying to get a category upgrade—say to Cat 1—they might make this offer knowing that it will help them get over the threshold even if they don't get first. Especially if they know they need these points in the next few races, they might make this deal rather than take the risk of not getting enough to qualify.