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There have been 15 year solar power purchase agreements signed already for $0.025/kWh [1]. Assuming they get to 50% efficiency, that's $1.69/gallon. Sounds cr

There have been 15 year solar power purchase agreements signed already for $0.025/kWh [1]. Assuming they get to 50% efficiency, that's $1.69/gallon. Sounds crazy low, but I hope it's true. [1] https://www.utilitydive.com/news/texas-muni-signs-cheap-solar-contract-below-25mwh/544509/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/texas-muni-signs-cheap-sola...

jillesvangurp 7y ago
Yes, and that's just until now. Anyone want to bet that we've hit rock bottom in terms of prices, efficiencies, and economies of scale? Or are we going to see another 10x? 0.17$/gallon. 20x?, 0.09$/gallon (rounding up because I'm lazy). My view is that is more a question of when than if and that the point where it stops mattering relative to the comparison to fossil fuels depending on your point may already be quite near or even in the past. Some places are still getting expensive solar, some places are bidding at 0.025/kwh. It doesn't really matter. What matters is what the bids will be ten years or so from now, which is when realistically this could start becoming operational at a meaningful scale. It's 2019. Ramping up production for something like this takes some time. A decade can fly by for a startup like this. Doing the math with 2019 prices and efficiencies means you get a very conservative view of what would be possible now with today's level of technology at today's scale. However, an investor needs to look a decade ahead. Or longer and assign some probabilities to likely outcomes. The outcome where there's no progress whatsoever in making clean energy tech better in the next ten years seems unlikely. So, betting on < 1$/gallon as a feasible goal in 1-2 decades seems like a reasonable bet. If the rest of the technology works as advertised (room temperature synthesis and extraction of alcohols) and the technology can be scaled at reasonable cost, that ought to be basically a money printing machine. The lower that price drops, the better. As long as oil remains the primary source, you can pocket the difference as profit.

jillesvangurp 7y ago

Yes, and that's just until now. Anyone want to bet that we've hit rock bottom in terms of prices, efficiencies, and economies of scale? Or are we going to see another 10x? 0.17$/gallon. 20x?, 0.09$/gallon (rounding up because I'm lazy). My view is that is more a question of when than if and that the point where it stops mattering relative to the comparison to fossil fuels depending on your point may already be quite near or even in the past. Some places are still getting expensive solar, some places are bidding at 0.025/kwh. It doesn't really matter. What matters is what the bids will be ten years or so from now, which is when realistically this could start becoming operational at a meaningful scale. It's 2019. Ramping up production for something like this takes some time. A decade can fly by for a startup like this. Doing the math with 2019 prices and efficiencies means you get a very conservative view of what would be possible now with today's level of technology at today's scale. However, an investor needs to look a decade ahead. Or longer and assign some probabilities to likely outcomes. The outcome where there's no progress whatsoever in making clean energy tech better in the next ten years seems unlikely. So, betting on < 1$/gallon as a feasible goal in 1-2 decades seems like a reasonable bet. If the rest of the technology works as advertised (room temperature synthesis and extraction of alcohols) and the technology can be scaled at reasonable cost, that ought to be basically a money printing machine. The lower that price drops, the better. As long as oil remains the primary source, you can pocket the difference as profit.