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This entire analysis is predicated on a super trend of human population increase. There is an increase in demand for housing, consumption goods etc as the popu

by kk58 7y ago

This entire analysis is predicated on a super trend of human population increase. There is an increase in demand for housing, consumption goods etc as the population increases. I doubt if this paradigm will succeed in an ageing world and a world in which climate change might introduce massive stress to the population growth continuum. It would be interesting to see how this played out during medieval era during black death era.

Aloha 7y ago
The only real hard constraints on long term population growth are, food insecurity, war, and pandemic. A secondary cause that is relevant for the aging population example you cited is gentrification, there seems to be an inverse population curve in respect to wealth - meaning the more money you have (or your society has) the fewer children you'll have - this is something that can be overcome thru public policy if deemed a priority by a society. Because of this, I see no reason why population will not continue to grow world wide - climate change is most likely to change where and what kind of food can be grown, not how much of it we can grow.
- antt 7y ago
  Every country that has had a GDP ppp of over $8k equivalent 2010 dollars does not have replenishment birth rates.
MR4D 7y ago
I share the same concern. Worse, if we are right, then R > G will only be true for growth, but R < G when growth is negative (in other words, R is more extreme in both directions). If I’m right about that, then the years after reaching a global population maximum could be rough - possibly really rough, bordering on disaster.
zemo 7y ago
> It would be interesting to see how this played out during medieval era during black death era. pretty sure the vast majority of people did not own any land at all at that time, and that land was not bought and sold in the way that it is today. Did the concept of housing prices even exist then?

by kk58 7y ago

Aloha 7y ago

The only real hard constraints on long term population growth are, food insecurity, war, and pandemic. A secondary cause that is relevant for the aging population example you cited is gentrification, there seems to be an inverse population curve in respect to wealth - meaning the more money you have (or your society has) the fewer children you'll have - this is something that can be overcome thru public policy if deemed a priority by a society. Because of this, I see no reason why population will not continue to grow world wide - climate change is most likely to change where and what kind of food can be grown, not how much of it we can grow.

antt 7y ago
Every country that has had a GDP ppp of over $8k equivalent 2010 dollars does not have replenishment birth rates.

MR4D 7y ago

I share the same concern. Worse, if we are right, then R > G will only be true for growth, but R < G when growth is negative (in other words, R is more extreme in both directions). If I’m right about that, then the years after reaching a global population maximum could be rough - possibly really rough, bordering on disaster.

zemo 7y ago

> It would be interesting to see how this played out during medieval era during black death era. pretty sure the vast majority of people did not own any land at all at that time, and that land was not bought and sold in the way that it is today. Did the concept of housing prices even exist then?