Yes, it's speculative. But so is the idea that this work is correct because he won a Nobel in the past. That's the point: you're making guesses based on limit

Yes, it's speculative. But so is the idea that this work is correct because he won a Nobel in the past. That's the point: you're making guesses based on limited evidence, and we're pointing out that you didn't use all available limited evidence to influence your guess, just some evidence that confirmed what you already felt. This is a kind of bias.