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I'm from Denmark, and my experience ranging from all the Nordic countries, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, and a bit in other countries but not enough to have an
by hvidgaard 7y ago
I'm from Denmark, and my experience ranging from all the Nordic countries, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, and a bit in other countries but not enough to have any real experience.
We could turn this system around. It would reliably cover the vast majority of semi transport if it just worked on major highways in Europe. Drive the truck to the highway on ramp, jump out and let it drive 1000km before someone picks it up and drive it "the last kilometer".
I think your timeline is overly pessimistic. 55 years ago way 1964 - a lot have happened in that time frame, and we put a man on the moon and a rover on mars in far less time. It can happen significantly faster. If we decided to start developing now, I believe that within 5-10 years we would get near a specification and legislation. That leaves changing the cars and that only have to be done gradually. We know so little about this problem domain that it's best done gradually and carefully.
I think we can agree to disagree.
I'm not convinced that weak AI will be anything but an enhancement to the human driver.
It's my belief that we don't even have a grasp of the AI domain to do this yet. Perhaps we will get it, perhaps we will not. Nothing that has happened in the AI space is new from the theoretical point of view. Neural networks was discovered in 1943, we just recently got the computational power to use it. But it doesn't scale and it's a black box approach. And it's easily fooled (see recent reports of a simply sticker on the road making a Tesla drive against traffic in the wrong lane).
The strong AI field haven't seen any real progress or breakthrough in a long time, and people still argue whether it's even possible. To put it into numbers, a worm, which we have not successfully modeled the brain of yet, have around 300 neurons. A human have 10^11, each witch have a far a greater connective complexity . Strong AI is not coming in the next 100 years, if at all.