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He's used to overpromising and then delivering far later than expected - it's worked so well for SpaceX. Maybe he inherited Jobs' reality distortion field?

dna_polymerase 7y ago
> it's worked so well for SpaceX In Elon's biography the author mentions that in all projects he was part of he would constantly give far optimistic delivery dates.
- mpweiher 7y ago
  A true engineer! :)
  - ergothus 7y ago
    I realize you're joking, but this is actually kind of bothersome to me. Most of us give overly optimistic delivery dates without intending to. Over time we learn that we have this habit, so we pad in some time we think is unnecessary...and still give overly optimistic delivery dates without intending to. If you add someone INTENDING to give such poor estimates, the problem moves from the "expected and occasionally problematic but still joke-able" to the "just plain lies" category.
    - Robotbeat 7y ago
      He's not intending to be over-optimistic; his goals are possible, he sees they are possible and says so, even if they're unlikely. And he repeatedly states his tendency to be over-optimistic, which RARELY is acknowledged by pretty much anyone else promoting a new advancement. "I think we can do this by XX. Granted, I've been over-optimistic in the past"... is refreshing honesty, not "lies." It's amazing to me that so many people interpret acknowledgement of one's own fallibility as lying.
      - ergothus 7y ago
        > so many people interpret acknowledgement of one's own fallibility as lying. I can't speak for others, but for myself I interpreted the bit about his bio saying this meant that it was the intention, not an honest assessment of what will occur despite intentions. I mean, I'm TERRIBLE at estimation and despite all my efforts and awareness I still underestimate most everything. But when starting a company I wouldn't say "...and we'll have optimistic estimates!" That said, I've not read the bio, and I may well have misunderstood the capsule summary. On the gripping hand, despite (or because of) all his undeniable brilliance at execution, Musk says and does a lot of things that are Not How I Would Do It, so who knows.
        mpweiher 7y ago
        Often times, to get amazing or even great, you have to aim for impossible. “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” -- George Bernard Shaw
Nokinside 7y ago
The article is about financial math side that is the issue. When the debt load becomes high enough, it dominates everything else. Musk is getting to the point where he every late delivery costs investors more and more.
cjhopman 7y ago
> it's worked so well for SpaceX. The only thing that SpaceX has done so far is prove that the traditional space industry was correct that you couldn't cost-effectively reuse rockets.

dna_polymerase 7y ago

> it's worked so well for SpaceX In Elon's biography the author mentions that in all projects he was part of he would constantly give far optimistic delivery dates.

mpweiher 7y ago
A true engineer! :)
- ergothus 7y ago
  I realize you're joking, but this is actually kind of bothersome to me. Most of us give overly optimistic delivery dates without intending to. Over time we learn that we have this habit, so we pad in some time we think is unnecessary...and still give overly optimistic delivery dates without intending to. If you add someone INTENDING to give such poor estimates, the problem moves from the "expected and occasionally problematic but still joke-able" to the "just plain lies" category.
  - Robotbeat 7y ago
    He's not intending to be over-optimistic; his goals are possible, he sees they are possible and says so, even if they're unlikely. And he repeatedly states his tendency to be over-optimistic, which RARELY is acknowledged by pretty much anyone else promoting a new advancement. "I think we can do this by XX. Granted, I've been over-optimistic in the past"... is refreshing honesty, not "lies." It's amazing to me that so many people interpret acknowledgement of one's own fallibility as lying.
    - ergothus 7y ago
      > so many people interpret acknowledgement of one's own fallibility as lying. I can't speak for others, but for myself I interpreted the bit about his bio saying this meant that it was the intention, not an honest assessment of what will occur despite intentions. I mean, I'm TERRIBLE at estimation and despite all my efforts and awareness I still underestimate most everything. But when starting a company I wouldn't say "...and we'll have optimistic estimates!" That said, I've not read the bio, and I may well have misunderstood the capsule summary. On the gripping hand, despite (or because of) all his undeniable brilliance at execution, Musk says and does a lot of things that are Not How I Would Do It, so who knows.
      - mpweiher 7y ago
        Often times, to get amazing or even great, you have to aim for impossible. “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” -- George Bernard Shaw

Nokinside 7y ago

The article is about financial math side that is the issue. When the debt load becomes high enough, it dominates everything else. Musk is getting to the point where he every late delivery costs investors more and more.

cjhopman 7y ago

> it's worked so well for SpaceX. The only thing that SpaceX has done so far is prove that the traditional space industry was correct that you couldn't cost-effectively reuse rockets.