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It's either a lie or psychotic delusion, I refuse to believe he is that uninformed and ignorant about the current state of autonomous driving.

tachyonbeam 8y ago
I think he's extremely optimistic and confident. He's been extremely successful so far, he's a billionaire, has done many things that nay sayers would have called impossible (ie: paypal, landing rockets, building electric cars with very competitive performance). It's not hard to see why Musk might believe he can do anything. He's taken big risks and gotten a lot of positive reinforcement over the last two decades. I agree that his timeline for robotaxis is probably over optimistic, and that there are many unsolved problems. Self-driving isn't all they have to solve. They also have to solve complex and annoying problems such as having self-driving cars find the people they are supposed to pick up, and also having the cars somehow find charging, find parking, etc. Furthermore, Tesla's claim of 1 million robotaxis assumes that everyone who owns a Tesla with full self driving would want to rent them out as part of the Tesla Network. That's very unrealistic. Most people probably prefer having their car be always available and not subjecting it to potential damage/towing/fines (more driving, more risk). Still, I wouldn't say Musk is ignorant about the state of self driving. They have self driving cars which they have demoed to people on their investor day. He just makes this probably incorrect assumption that it's all "just software" from here, and everything should be easy to fix. Software isn't easier than hardware. It could also be the case that changes do need to be made for the hardware in order to get high enough reliability, there is no guarantee that the hardware is completely right in its current iteration.
- camjohnson26 8y ago
  It’s not over optimistic, it’s delusional and will not happen. Tesla doesn’t have self driving cars, what they demoed was a less restricted version of autopilot which had to disengage multiple times on the short, predefined demo route that investors rode on. There’s an easy explanation. Musk knows that self driving is mostly hype at this point but he’s running out of cash and desperately needs a capital raise. If he can fool investors into thinking he’ll have self driving solved within a year maybe they’ll give Tesla the money it needs.
  - Someone 8y ago
    “Fooling investors” can also lead to law suits that cost Tesla and Musk lots of time and attention, and, in extreme cases, may lead to Musk spending time in jail.
Tiktaalik 8y ago
With regard to the Boring Company and his transit 'solutions' he's obviously uninformed and ignorant, and his bs has been called out so many times by transit planners, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's just as uninformed and ignorant with his other endeavors.
tim333 8y ago
I think he's counting on 'exponential improvement'. You can sort of see where they are going - they have features like summon in a car park or changing lane in traffic that sort of work and they are gradually going to tick off the various driving test skills you need at which point it will sort of work. Then he's hoping it will get reliable as the network learns. It's that last point that may be over optimistic.
- fmihaila 8y ago
  > I think he's counting on 'exponential improvement'. Here he is, on record, stating that he believes Tesla has essentially solved the problem ('game, set, and match'): [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI&t=1778 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI&t=1778
- manicdee 8y ago
  The car also stops at signals and stop signs, and yields for traffic before turning. Did you watch the autonomy day presentations and demonstration drives?
  - tim333 8y ago
    Yeah I did. It seems to be coming along.

tachyonbeam 8y ago

I think he's extremely optimistic and confident. He's been extremely successful so far, he's a billionaire, has done many things that nay sayers would have called impossible (ie: paypal, landing rockets, building electric cars with very competitive performance). It's not hard to see why Musk might believe he can do anything. He's taken big risks and gotten a lot of positive reinforcement over the last two decades. I agree that his timeline for robotaxis is probably over optimistic, and that there are many unsolved problems. Self-driving isn't all they have to solve. They also have to solve complex and annoying problems such as having self-driving cars find the people they are supposed to pick up, and also having the cars somehow find charging, find parking, etc. Furthermore, Tesla's claim of 1 million robotaxis assumes that everyone who owns a Tesla with full self driving would want to rent them out as part of the Tesla Network. That's very unrealistic. Most people probably prefer having their car be always available and not subjecting it to potential damage/towing/fines (more driving, more risk). Still, I wouldn't say Musk is ignorant about the state of self driving. They have self driving cars which they have demoed to people on their investor day. He just makes this probably incorrect assumption that it's all "just software" from here, and everything should be easy to fix. Software isn't easier than hardware. It could also be the case that changes do need to be made for the hardware in order to get high enough reliability, there is no guarantee that the hardware is completely right in its current iteration.

camjohnson26 8y ago
It’s not over optimistic, it’s delusional and will not happen. Tesla doesn’t have self driving cars, what they demoed was a less restricted version of autopilot which had to disengage multiple times on the short, predefined demo route that investors rode on. There’s an easy explanation. Musk knows that self driving is mostly hype at this point but he’s running out of cash and desperately needs a capital raise. If he can fool investors into thinking he’ll have self driving solved within a year maybe they’ll give Tesla the money it needs.
- Someone 8y ago
  “Fooling investors” can also lead to law suits that cost Tesla and Musk lots of time and attention, and, in extreme cases, may lead to Musk spending time in jail.

Tiktaalik 8y ago

With regard to the Boring Company and his transit 'solutions' he's obviously uninformed and ignorant, and his bs has been called out so many times by transit planners, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's just as uninformed and ignorant with his other endeavors.

tim333 8y ago

I think he's counting on 'exponential improvement'. You can sort of see where they are going - they have features like summon in a car park or changing lane in traffic that sort of work and they are gradually going to tick off the various driving test skills you need at which point it will sort of work. Then he's hoping it will get reliable as the network learns. It's that last point that may be over optimistic.

fmihaila 8y ago
> I think he's counting on 'exponential improvement'. Here he is, on record, stating that he believes Tesla has essentially solved the problem ('game, set, and match'): [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI&t=1778 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI&t=1778
manicdee 8y ago
The car also stops at signals and stop signs, and yields for traffic before turning. Did you watch the autonomy day presentations and demonstration drives?
- tim333 8y ago
  Yeah I did. It seems to be coming along.