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> phased array and be expensive There isn't any question about the type of antenna. The details have been filed with the FCC. The antenna will be phased arra

> phased array and be expensive There isn't any question about the type of antenna. The details have been filed with the FCC. The antenna will be phased array. Obviously there is a high front loaded capital cost to developing a phased array transceiver for this system. The scale of the market, however, is vast; hundreds of millions of units. I believe the per unit cost of manufacturing these transceivers will be low due to this scale. I can't know that however, so we'll have to wait and see.

dreamcompiler 8y ago
Thanks. I suspected it would be PA, but I have not read the filing.
shaklee3 8y ago
Why hundreds of millions? At most this service will have a couple million people on the entire constellation if you want the speeds musk is saying. Otherwise, you have much lower speeds and cram more people, which is a trade-off all satellite technology has.
- topspin 8y ago
  We can't compute credible figures at this point because a lot of the technical information is proprietary and the business model isn't known. I don't believe Elon has committed to any specific bandwidth; searching yields claims of "up to" 1 Gbps. Given the rates cited here[1] (20 Gbps/satellite) I seriously doubt that 1 Gbps is going to be offered at a price level that allows it to be widespread. More likely we'll see service offered in the 10s of Mbps. So the best we may achieve is some napkin level estimates. Let us assume 100 Mbps as a realistic subscriber rate. 12000 satellites[2] * 20 Gbps/satellite * 100/1 over-subscription (typical, see here[2]) / 100 Mbps = 240 million theoretical subscribers. Obviously every figure here is open to endless dispute, but we're in the right order of magnitude. I believe this is the scale Elon is thinking at; he's trying to fund interplanetary space travel with this. In any case there will need to be a couple mountains worth of transceivers for the plan to work, and making fixed function electronics at that scale is typically highly cost effective. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/7xzkl5/starlink_satellite_bandwidth https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/7xzkl5/starlink_s... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellat... [3] http://www.ctcnet.us/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/CTC-ConnectivityPerformanceFactorsBrief0213141.pdf http://www.ctcnet.us/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/CTC-Connecti... "Cable modem and DSL providers often have a 100:1 or greater oversubscription ratio for residential users and a 50:1 ratio for business users."
  - killjoywashere 8y ago
    I'm on a small island in the Pacific. If I can get 100 Mbps, by any means, whatever the latency, it will competitive. Right now I pay for 25, the two ISPs on island swear they're building out to 50, and I average 15 down and 1.3 up. my latency sits around 250-300 ms to North America and 150-250 to Asia.
  - shaklee3 8y ago
    Your math left out the biggest factor, which is useable bandwidth. Most satellites will be over water at any given time, so the number of users will be far less. Any you're talking about full build out, which is a decade away. Internet consumption has been growing nearly exponentially.
    - topspin 8y ago
      That's a great point. Figure 80% of the Earth is ocean, 240e6 * 0.2 = 48 million subscribers. Still large enough to justify, for instance, the custom ASICs necessary to achieve a low cost phased array.
maccam94 8y ago
Elon has previously said they are targeting $100-300 for a pizza box sized antenna.

dreamcompiler 8y ago

Thanks. I suspected it would be PA, but I have not read the filing.

shaklee3 8y ago

Why hundreds of millions? At most this service will have a couple million people on the entire constellation if you want the speeds musk is saying. Otherwise, you have much lower speeds and cram more people, which is a trade-off all satellite technology has.

topspin 8y ago
We can't compute credible figures at this point because a lot of the technical information is proprietary and the business model isn't known. I don't believe Elon has committed to any specific bandwidth; searching yields claims of "up to" 1 Gbps. Given the rates cited here[1] (20 Gbps/satellite) I seriously doubt that 1 Gbps is going to be offered at a price level that allows it to be widespread. More likely we'll see service offered in the 10s of Mbps. So the best we may achieve is some napkin level estimates. Let us assume 100 Mbps as a realistic subscriber rate. 12000 satellites[2] * 20 Gbps/satellite * 100/1 over-subscription (typical, see here[2]) / 100 Mbps = 240 million theoretical subscribers. Obviously every figure here is open to endless dispute, but we're in the right order of magnitude. I believe this is the scale Elon is thinking at; he's trying to fund interplanetary space travel with this. In any case there will need to be a couple mountains worth of transceivers for the plan to work, and making fixed function electronics at that scale is typically highly cost effective. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/7xzkl5/starlink_satellite_bandwidth https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/7xzkl5/starlink_s... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellat... [3] http://www.ctcnet.us/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/CTC-ConnectivityPerformanceFactorsBrief0213141.pdf http://www.ctcnet.us/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/CTC-Connecti... "Cable modem and DSL providers often have a 100:1 or greater oversubscription ratio for residential users and a 50:1 ratio for business users."
- killjoywashere 8y ago
  I'm on a small island in the Pacific. If I can get 100 Mbps, by any means, whatever the latency, it will competitive. Right now I pay for 25, the two ISPs on island swear they're building out to 50, and I average 15 down and 1.3 up. my latency sits around 250-300 ms to North America and 150-250 to Asia.
- shaklee3 8y ago
  Your math left out the biggest factor, which is useable bandwidth. Most satellites will be over water at any given time, so the number of users will be far less. Any you're talking about full build out, which is a decade away. Internet consumption has been growing nearly exponentially.
  - topspin 8y ago
    That's a great point. Figure 80% of the Earth is ocean, 240e6 * 0.2 = 48 million subscribers. Still large enough to justify, for instance, the custom ASICs necessary to achieve a low cost phased array.

maccam94 8y ago

Elon has previously said they are targeting $100-300 for a pizza box sized antenna.