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No - these companies generally don't have heavy debt. 1) IPO-ing companies represent a very very small chunk of the overall economy. 2) That 'there are IPO's'
by sonnyblarney 8y ago
No - these companies generally don't have heavy debt.
1) IPO-ing companies represent a very very small chunk of the overall economy.
2) That 'there are IPO's' is a very good signal - it makes investors 'feel' bullish and confident.
3) These companies don't carry a lot of debt. If they were able to, they wouldn't be diluting by raising equity.
4) Uber, Lift, Pinterest, WeWork - they are all mostly viable businesses. Yes, their stock price may be too high in many cases, but they are mostly viable at some level.
5) Don't blame SoftBank. SoftBank is great! It's a ton of 'kind of dumb money' from places with way too much money (Saudis) and nowhere to put it. This means startups can expand far beyond where they normally would and they are handing surpluses to consumers like you and me!
Consider: how is it bad for you for companies to be giving you stuff below market value!? It's possibly bad for other investors, but we consumers win, so long as it doesn't happen broadly and cause a bubble.
All that money we send to Saudi for Oil is coming back in the form of 'cool offices below market value'.
Uber/Lyft have unit profitability problems at current price, but once the market settles down, they can increase prices a bit and it will be ok. (Again, massive stock price not withstanding)
WeWork will work out as long as there isn't a real-estate crash. They are basically leveraged hard on long-term contracts. We don't know the details of them, but if vacancies spike they could be in a world of cash-flow pain.
So yes, the hype is a little much, regular retail investors should probably we wary of holding the bag ...
But these things will only crash if there is a recession and most things look good right now.
FYI even 'bubble conditions' often need something to pop the bubble, like a sudden increase in interest rates, or 'the ground falling out' like in 2007. Right now, there are some signs of froth, and hints of maybe a recession (i.e. at the top of the cycle) but nothing really to say it's going to pop.
Canada could have a major real estate correction, but nobody would care.
China could have a flop, but they can fudge the numbers so well it'll probably be covered up and papered over as a long term slow down. In fact, I think that's what's happening: China has many big sectors which would be in recession, but the numbers are fudged to look like 5% growth.
- mschuster91 8y ago> All that money we send to Saudi for Oil is coming back in the form of 'cool offices below market value'. This money has strings attached, strings of political power, just as the Chinese Belt Road initiative. One wrong word or protest when another dozen people is executed by sword or crucified or Muslims sent to concentration camps and poof, there goes your funding, there goes your economy. If there is one foolish thing to do, it is accepting blood money from a potentially hostile foreign power.
- sonnyblarney 7y agoSoftbank does not come with political strings. China's 'belt and road' are political, national investments part of a grand strategy. Softbank is just money. If you set out to attack MBS/Saudis while taking their money, you can expect trouble, but I significantly doubt you're going to be trouble otherwise. Whereas Chinas national loans have an entirely different set of objectives. Softbank/Saudis are just looking to make money, like most other VCs.