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It's only a recession if it affects macroeconomic indicators right? So a big drop in stocks doesn't really indicate a recession only. Kind of like how the dotco

• lawrenceyan 8y ago
  Confidence is the fundamental currency that determines whether the economy trends towards growth or recession. And recent events by these privately held companies show a keen lack of confidence in my opinion. That they’ve all chosen to IPO now at the same time gives you a strong indicator to look at. You might disagree with my final determination on what it means exactly, but the fact that it’s happening is undeniable. As to macroeconomic indicators, I think the majority of them are largely useless as predictors and at best self-fulfilling in nature.
• tdhoot 8y ago
  There was a recession around ~2001, triggered deliberately by the Fed to control an overheated economy due to insane stock market valuations. The recession was pretty minor though.
• rchaud 8y ago
  The dotcom crash absolutely had an impact on macro indicators. The loss of faith in the sector hurt new business creation. Nobody wants to start a business in a recession, and VCs don't want to spend money on "tech plays" when the IPO market is weak and they've been burned too many times on dud investments. The economic impact can't be quantified by the drop is stock value, it occurs slowly over time, like lower payroll taxes, higher unemployment benefit costs, lower consumption etc.