I've an informal method for estimating uncertainty by looking at how the forecast for a particular day changes over time - i n the UK the BBC provides 10 day fo

I've an informal method for estimating uncertainty by looking at how the forecast for a particular day changes over time - i n the UK the BBC provides 10 day forecasts so I watch particular days and if they are consistent over time then I usually have more confidence than if the forecast for a particular day changes every day. Mind you - I had a six hour walk in rain and snow last Saturday when the forecast was for a fairly nice day and had been for over a week :-)