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Depending on how it's hedged, that's like predicting, "It will probably rain in the next quarter of a year"; a prediction over a scale that large approaches a p
by Semiapies 16y ago
Depending on how it's hedged, that's like predicting, "It will probably rain in the next quarter of a year"; a prediction over a scale that large approaches a probability of 1 under most circumstances.
- akozak 16y agoThat would be really interesting though; if the probability of a bubble approaches 1 given enough time. Is that an accepted law of economics?
- Semiapies 16y ago"Bubbles" are complicated and regularly conflated with other things entirely. What is more certain and established is that the economy has a boom and bust cycle.
- newt 16y agoThe probability that there will be a bubble in some sector at some time in the future approaches 1.0 The probability that it has already started to inflate is supposed to be a lot less, but in the last decade and a half, it seems there have been a lot of bubbles in various parts of the economy.