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If we were, in fact, in a bubble of sufficient size, wouldn't these predictions be at least somewhat correct? That is to ask, when do you actually know if these
by akozak 16y ago
If we were, in fact, in a bubble of sufficient size, wouldn't these predictions be at least somewhat correct? That is to ask, when do you actually know if these statements are true or false? Couldn't you conceivably be in a bubble that develops over a decade which suddenly comes crashing down to pre-bubble-assessment levels in the early half of that growth?
- Semiapies 16y agoDepending on how it's hedged, that's like predicting, "It will probably rain in the next quarter of a year"; a prediction over a scale that large approaches a probability of 1 under most circumstances.
- akozak 16y agoThat would be really interesting though; if the probability of a bubble approaches 1 given enough time. Is that an accepted law of economics?
- Semiapies 16y ago"Bubbles" are complicated and regularly conflated with other things entirely. What is more certain and established is that the economy has a boom and bust cycle.
- newt 16y agoThe probability that there will be a bubble in some sector at some time in the future approaches 1.0 The probability that it has already started to inflate is supposed to be a lot less, but in the last decade and a half, it seems there have been a lot of bubbles in various parts of the economy.