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Balanced against the constant, nearly-infinite, breathless hype that is pumped out by the bucket-load by the tech blogs, a little healthy skepticism is a good t
by ojbyrne 16y ago
Balanced against the constant, nearly-infinite, breathless hype that is pumped out by the bucket-load by the tech blogs, a little healthy skepticism is a good thing in my opinion.
- jamesaguilar 16y agoSkepticism is only healthy when it is borne out in truth. Pointless skepticism is not healthy. So if you constantly believe there is going to be a bubble, and there isn't one, that is an example of unhealthy skepticism.
- Semiapies 16y agoWell, actual skepticism is perfectly right and proper, as it's entirely based on the demand that things really be "borne out in truth" before they're accepted as true. Certain political movements aside, "skepticism" does not mean "adamant denial of some claim no matter what evidence is presented".
- quanticle 16y agoThat's not the problem with predicting there's a bubble. The problem is that any such prediction automatically carries an implication of, "The bubble will pop soon." Unfortunately, timing bubbles is a tricky thing, and the market has a way of staying irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Numerous commentators correctly identified the tech. bubble of the '90s and the housing bubble of the 2000s. However, very few of those commentators were able to successfully time the popping of these two bubbles (and the ones that did make correct predictions may have got lucky). For my part, I don't think another tech bubble has inflated. In the '90s there were numerous companies whose entire strategy revolved around making an unprofitable business model profitable with internet magic. I don't see as much of that today. But who knows? If advertising revenue declines sufficiently, even Google could be in trouble.
- ojbyrne 16y agoWhich was the defense of those who said "there's no web bubble" in 2000, "no housing bubble" in 2005, "no tulip bubble" in 1636, the East India company would make everyone rich in 1670. A bubble by definition isn't evident until after the fact. But I'll still advance Bebo as the exemplar of an emerging bubble. Acquired for $850 million, sold 2 years later for < $10 million. And there's other similar cases.
- pg 16y agoSurely the solution to nonsense is not more nonsense with the sign bit flipped?
- khafra 16y agoI think Eliezer says it best: http://lesswrong.com/lw/lw/reversed_stupidity_is_not_intelligence/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/lw/reversed_stupidity_is_not_intelli... What counts is calibrated predictive power.
- ojbyrne 16y agoSeems to me that the industry is basically bimodal. Either you get a hugely successful outcome, or you end up owning Bebo (I realize that YC is probably a large counterexample). So why shouldn't commentary match that bimodalism, to coin a word.
- chipsy 16y agoOne might call it "digital emotion."
- underdown 16y agowhen did skepticism become nonsense?
- j_baker 16y agoI agree that there's a lot of paranoia and FUD going around out there about this. But I don't think this is fair. Some people have valid concerns about a tech bubble emerging. For instance Fred Wilson doesn't strike me as someone who is running around screaming about the sky falling.