2 ms·

This is how a lot of financial commentary goes. There were people predicting a bubble and a downturn Real Soon Now for internet-related companies by 1994.

jerf 16y ago
It's actually part of the cycle. The boy-cries-wolf effect is part of what helps the bubble grow bigger by making it easier to ignore those who continuously breathlessly pronounce that the wolf is here. Even otherwise-rational people start wondering if maybe this time really is different. Then it isn't. That said, I don't think we're anywhere near "bubble" territory. If it looks like a bubble it's only because it's a less sick sector of the economy against a backdrop of a dreadfully sick economy; in the land of the insolvent the $1 profit is king.
- Semiapies 16y ago
  Agreed - and even further, in the midst of a downturn, there's a huge bias against believing that any business could be making a real profit. After the sky falls, everyone turns into Chicken Little.
- rmah 16y ago
  The economy is "dreadfully sick" mostly from the point of view of lower and middle income people. It's "so-so" for the wealthy. It's fairly good for larger companies. Public company profits are very strong for 2010 and balance sheets tend to be very solid. Public companies have been sitting on their huge cash hoards (estimated at around $1 tril) but have recently been doing stock buybacks and increasing dividends. More importantly, profitability is strongly up across almost every sector. Much of that is from cost cutting rather than increased sales, but companies that do a lot of business overseas have been seeing a better top line as well. Sadly, none of this has helped the unemployment picture. Companies simply do not want to hire more people in the US for a variety of reasons. Debt loads for consumers is still very high and because the real estate market is still weak, people's most valuable asset is often a chain around their necks. A rather mixed picture, IMO.

jerf 16y ago

It's actually part of the cycle. The boy-cries-wolf effect is part of what helps the bubble grow bigger by making it easier to ignore those who continuously breathlessly pronounce that the wolf is here. Even otherwise-rational people start wondering if maybe this time really is different. Then it isn't. That said, I don't think we're anywhere near "bubble" territory. If it looks like a bubble it's only because it's a less sick sector of the economy against a backdrop of a dreadfully sick economy; in the land of the insolvent the $1 profit is king.

Semiapies 16y ago
Agreed - and even further, in the midst of a downturn, there's a huge bias against believing that any business could be making a real profit. After the sky falls, everyone turns into Chicken Little.
rmah 16y ago
The economy is "dreadfully sick" mostly from the point of view of lower and middle income people. It's "so-so" for the wealthy. It's fairly good for larger companies. Public company profits are very strong for 2010 and balance sheets tend to be very solid. Public companies have been sitting on their huge cash hoards (estimated at around $1 tril) but have recently been doing stock buybacks and increasing dividends. More importantly, profitability is strongly up across almost every sector. Much of that is from cost cutting rather than increased sales, but companies that do a lot of business overseas have been seeing a better top line as well. Sadly, none of this has helped the unemployment picture. Companies simply do not want to hire more people in the US for a variety of reasons. Debt loads for consumers is still very high and because the real estate market is still weak, people's most valuable asset is often a chain around their necks. A rather mixed picture, IMO.