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Can anyone explain how 538 got the last election so wrong? Its quite obvious in hindsight their model is flawed, but Im not understanding how is it flawed.
by petraeus 7y ago
Can anyone explain how 538 got the last election so wrong?
Its quite obvious in hindsight their model is flawed, but Im not understanding how is it flawed.
- KeenFox 7y agoDid they? As far as I can recall 538 has always been clear that they deal in probabilities, not binary predictions. They gave him a small chance of winning for a reason, and it turned out chaos favored one of the low odds scenarios.
- fourmajor 7y agoIf you're referring to either the midterms or the 2016 presidential election, they didn't get either particularly wrong.