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"The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14948078 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14948078 And
by YjSe2GMQ 7y ago
"The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14948078 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14948078
And here's the live (well, lagging a few months, but this is a very slow signal anyhow) version: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14950203 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14950203
- frankosaurus 7y agoI've enjoyed that article since it was first posted. Its predictions have held up well. As you said, it's a very slow signal. The model predicts what will happen over 10 years. It doesn't say whether there will be steady X% YOY growth, or a massive plunge and then a compensating rebound.