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I disagree. Suppose you have an election with 3 candidates that runs every year. If you predict candidate A win at 33% confidence, but that candidate gets elect
by robto 7y ago
I disagree. Suppose you have an election with 3 candidates that runs every year. If you predict candidate A win at 33% confidence, but that candidate gets elected every year, your calibration will be way off. Calibration is about aggregating, so you can't really cheat it. Your 33% prediction has to be right 33% of the time - it's really hard to fake that.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding your position, though.
- paulgb 7y agoThat's right if you only predict the probability of candidate A, but if you are predicting 33% for all three candidates each year, your 33% prediction will consistently be right 1/3 of the time in aggregate.