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If thats your understanding of making a prediction then he was accurate by your standards. You clearly did not watch the election night predictions. NYT live mo
by objektif 8y ago
If thats your understanding of making a prediction then he was accurate by your standards. You clearly did not watch the election night predictions. NYT live model was miles better than 538s.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pund...
- novia 8y agoYour link is from 2016 before the presidential election but after the primaries. Nate is admitting that he underestimated Trump in the primaries and talks about what happened. This does not seem particularly relevant to the subject of election night predictions.
- objektif 8y agoThis is regarding his bias. If anything the link is even more relevant. He repeated the similiar mistakes.
- pwinnski 8y agoHis main mistake as highlighted in that article is that they didn't use statistics for the nomination process, but guesswork. For the election proper, they did use statistics. So no, they did not repeat the mistake at all.
- notheruser 8y agoHis election night model wasn't good, but he isn't known and respected for his election night model, so who cares?