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This gets to the core of Taleb's beef with FiveThirtyEight - what political forecasts are calibrated? The ones that were forecasted 6 months out, or the last f
by cljs-js-eval 7y ago
This gets to the core of Taleb's beef with FiveThirtyEight - what political forecasts are calibrated? The ones that were forecasted 6 months out, or the last forecast before the end of the election?
They may only be calibrated when enough of the facts are in to make predicting easier. Still useful, but not calibrated in the way the general public might think.
- Symmetry 7y agoIf you dive a bit more they look at each forcast at each time interval for which it is made. So they include the 12 month out one, the 11 month out one, etc when assessing calibration.
- cljs-js-eval 7y agoAh, that's very useful to know. I take my statement back then, this is better calibration than I thought.