4 ms·

I've been seeing a lot of calls about this incoming downturn (especially HN), does anyone have any articles/analysis they can point me to? Would love to read up

I've been seeing a lot of calls about this incoming downturn (especially HN), does anyone have any articles/analysis they can point me to? Would love to read up on the state of it.

0xDEFC0DE 7y ago
The recent yield curve inversion got a lot of peoples' attention as that has preceded recessions since the 1960s or so, but I can't point to a better article than mainstream news.
sneak 7y ago
There is no "state of the art" of predicting the future, sadly.
mertd 7y ago
No. The bull run could sustain for another 10 years or end tomorrow. I bet people predicting the downturn are also still heavily invested in stocks.
- TheAlchemist 7y ago
  That's the nature of the market. However, it's still a very valuable to say 'market will be lower than today, by 30%, somewhere between today and 10 years'. The periods where this phrase were true throughout history are rather very rare - and I do belive it's quite true now.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  > I bet people predicting the downturn are also still heavily invested in stocks. As they should be, unless they plan to retire in the near future. Attempting to time the market is generally folly.
simplyluke 7y ago
We've been in a bull run for a long time. The market will eventually have a downturn. No one knows when that will be, how big it will be, or how long it will run for. HN comments can be excellent on certain topics, finance is certainly not one of them.
base698 7y ago
The short of it, is that in some cases stocks have gone up 2 to 3 times their value in 5 years, yet revenues have been flat. Also, companies have been doing stock buy backs in some cases using bond debt to do it. Another kind of interesting thing is the amount of money going into index funds. These index funds buy stocks based on their position in the market. The influx of capital allows companies to stay in the S&P 500 that before may have been removed. This optimizes for whether or not you're in the S&P 500 and not actually company performance. Decoupling your survival from reality is not a healthy ecosystem. https://www.thestreet.com/story/10115781/1/investors-holding-the-bag-on-cisco-buyback.html https://www.thestreet.com/story/10115781/1/investors-holding...
olivermarks 7y ago
Charles Hugh Smith is pretty perceptive (oftwominds blog) but no one knows what triggers drops in confidence and when these major events occur.
raldi 7y ago
Sure, here's a 2009 HN thread all about the impending market crash: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=712198 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=712198 And one from 2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2868728 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2868728 And here's one from 2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3947923 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3947923 Here's one from 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8338411 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8338411 And here's one from 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12218583 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12218583
- refurb 7y ago
  Nicely done. The truth is that no one really knows when the crash will come. But it will come eventually.
- Andrex 7y ago
  The boy who cried wolf did end up being right about the wolf, just not the timing. :(
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
YjSe2GMQ 7y ago
"The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14948078 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14948078 And here's the live (well, lagging a few months, but this is a very slow signal anyhow) version: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14950203 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14950203
- frankosaurus 7y ago
  I've enjoyed that article since it was first posted. Its predictions have held up well. As you said, it's a very slow signal. The model predicts what will happen over 10 years. It doesn't say whether there will be steady X% YOY growth, or a massive plunge and then a compensating rebound.

I've been seeing a lot of calls about this incoming downturn (especially HN), does anyone have any articles/analysis they can point me to? Would love to read up on the state of it.

0xDEFC0DE 7y ago

The recent yield curve inversion got a lot of peoples' attention as that has preceded recessions since the 1960s or so, but I can't point to a better article than mainstream news.

sneak 7y ago

There is no "state of the art" of predicting the future, sadly.

mertd 7y ago

No. The bull run could sustain for another 10 years or end tomorrow. I bet people predicting the downturn are also still heavily invested in stocks.

TheAlchemist 7y ago
That's the nature of the market. However, it's still a very valuable to say 'market will be lower than today, by 30%, somewhere between today and 10 years'. The periods where this phrase were true throughout history are rather very rare - and I do belive it's quite true now.
ceejayoz 7y ago
> I bet people predicting the downturn are also still heavily invested in stocks. As they should be, unless they plan to retire in the near future. Attempting to time the market is generally folly.

simplyluke 7y ago

We've been in a bull run for a long time. The market will eventually have a downturn. No one knows when that will be, how big it will be, or how long it will run for. HN comments can be excellent on certain topics, finance is certainly not one of them.

base698 7y ago

The short of it, is that in some cases stocks have gone up 2 to 3 times their value in 5 years, yet revenues have been flat. Also, companies have been doing stock buy backs in some cases using bond debt to do it. Another kind of interesting thing is the amount of money going into index funds. These index funds buy stocks based on their position in the market. The influx of capital allows companies to stay in the S&P 500 that before may have been removed. This optimizes for whether or not you're in the S&P 500 and not actually company performance. Decoupling your survival from reality is not a healthy ecosystem. https://www.thestreet.com/story/10115781/1/investors-holding-the-bag-on-cisco-buyback.html https://www.thestreet.com/story/10115781/1/investors-holding...

olivermarks 7y ago

Charles Hugh Smith is pretty perceptive (oftwominds blog) but no one knows what triggers drops in confidence and when these major events occur.

raldi 7y ago

Sure, here's a 2009 HN thread all about the impending market crash: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=712198 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=712198 And one from 2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2868728 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2868728 And here's one from 2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3947923 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3947923 Here's one from 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8338411 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8338411 And here's one from 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12218583 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12218583

refurb 7y ago
Nicely done. The truth is that no one really knows when the crash will come. But it will come eventually.
Andrex 7y ago
The boy who cried wolf did end up being right about the wolf, just not the timing. :(
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

YjSe2GMQ 7y ago

"The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14948078 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14948078 And here's the live (well, lagging a few months, but this is a very slow signal anyhow) version: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14950203 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14950203

frankosaurus 7y ago
I've enjoyed that article since it was first posted. Its predictions have held up well. As you said, it's a very slow signal. The model predicts what will happen over 10 years. It doesn't say whether there will be steady X% YOY growth, or a massive plunge and then a compensating rebound.