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I was originally very pro Tesla, until about 18 months ago when a friend who works in finance gave me the heads up on TSLAQ, Here's a few datapoints on what's
by seem_2211 7y ago
I was originally very pro Tesla, until about 18 months ago when a friend who works in finance gave me the heads up on TSLAQ,
Here's a few datapoints on what's convincing me that this is not a healthy company:
• Musk is constantly promising things that don't happen (full self driving, robotaxis, Model Y, Tesla Semi truck, Tesla Roadster, car with a rocket motor, 10k/wk production). This week it's an electric leafblower. Seems like everytime there's bad news, there's a distraction ready to go.
• The entire cult of Musk working 100 hours a week yet he shitposts more than I do.
• Funding secured, followed by funding not secured is a bit of a joke, but also, if the CEO of General Electric, or Chevron tried that, they'd be fired.
• The reports of people waiting months and months to get simple repairs done. If Vinod Khosla (1) can't have his car repaired quickly, where does that leave the average joe on the street?
• Enormous price decreases. The price of a Model S decreased $12k a few weeks ago, and the Model X decreased by $18k. This is horrific for your margins, especially if you're short on cash.
• Batteries exploding (2), and people dying in car accidents that they should have walked away in - the example here is someone who couldn't get out because the door handles didn't work (3).
• Enormous Health & Safety violations at the Freemont factory (4). Before we even get into the nonsense that was the factory operation (compare to say the efficiencies and tight tolerances of the Nissan operations in the UK).
• Simple errors meaning the Tesla factory is enormously inefficient by North American standards (the consensus being that Tesla made the same mistakes other American firms made in the 1980s)
• Panasonic freezing investment in Nevada and China (6)
But finally, the biggest thing that makes me skeptical is that none of what I've said matters. Because this isn't about facts, it's about faith. And I think Tesla is a fraud and that Elon Musk could give Elizabeth Homes a run for her money, which is a real shame because the Model S is a nice enough car, and electric cars are clearly something we'll have in the future. You can fudge the numbers a bit if you're a VC backed startup. You can't do that if you run a publicly traded company.
1: https://twitter.com/vkhosla/status/1085931446542290944?s=20 https://twitter.com/vkhosla/status/1085931446542290944?s=20
2: https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/04/article/teslas-china-inroads-hit-by-car-explosion/ https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/04/article/teslas-china-inroa...
3: https://futurism.com/tesla-driver-killed-burning-model-s https://futurism.com/tesla-driver-killed-burning-model-s
4: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2019/03/01/tesla-safety-violations-dwarf-big-us-auto-plants-in-aftermath-of-musks-model-3-push/#1e941ac354ce https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2019/03/01/tesla-sa...
5: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-r...
6: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Tesla-and-Panasonic-freeze-spending-on-4.5bn-Gigafactory https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Tesla-and-Panason...
- hef19898 7y agoTotally agree, especially on production and servicing. All German manufacturers, I personally would never buy a car from by the way, are relying a lot on the corporate leasing business. In that market customers don't wait months to get a car repaired. Even more so if the customer is not just leasing them for employees but operating a business with these cars, e.g. Taxis.