3 ms·

I dont have any shares, but if I had the money I would purchase a boat load of them. 1) He has a fleet of cars which is giving him a lot of data and edge cases

I dont have any shares, but if I had the money I would purchase a boat load of them. 1) He has a fleet of cars which is giving him a lot of data and edge cases. Of which is growing with every new car purchased and on the road. 2) He has a team developing the software, refining it with each new release and it's just getting better and better with more data. 3) He has a team developing the hardware, on the investor day he said that another chip will come out in 2 years and be 3x more capable. Going from memory on that one, so feel free to correct. But this point still stands. They aren't standing still. I do believe that vision trumps lidar and they'll get to level 5 automation with much more precision than waymo and get there a hell of a lot faster than uber. 4) It seems with every car that rolls off the assembly line, they are consistently making modifications and improving the battery tech and drive train. Again, they have the data to keep on improving their cars. 5) With the maxwell purchase I'm sure they'll start to develop their own batteries and get even better performance due to optimising the whole car. So, Tesla owns the: 1) Data 2) Self Driving Software 3) Self Driving Hardware 4) Drive Train 5) Battery Tech 6) Power Grid Network Also don't forget that the grid and charging stations keep improving over time. Imagine if we get to 5 minute charging, faster than the current paradigm? Game changer. Can anyone suggest another vendor getting close to this? Once Telsa put out the robo-taxis it really is game set and match. They own the whole stack, end to end. He even mentioned that the price could go down. Can you imagine a $25k robo-taxi and does 1k miles? The other car makers should be very afraid of this prospect.

hi5eyes 7y ago
of course this rests on the assumption that teslas revenue continues with the investigations looming everything you assume and hope for costs a lot of money >I do believe that vision trumps lidar and they'll get to level 5 automation and the robotaxi meme are just dreams for elon to sell to pump the stock
codexon 7y ago
This is assuming that level 5 automation is possible any time soon, while a growing number of people believe it isn't. If it turns out that we need another 2-3 decades to get there, Tesla will run out of money long before then.
hef19898 7y ago
I have to disagree here. Regarding: 1) Data is collected by others too (Waymo, Uber, etc...) 2) See above, software is simply being purchased by OEMs, the increasing importance of software will be shifting power so 3) Hardware, again Tesla is not the only one 4) Actually easier than ICEs as it is less complex, also in the automotive sector mass production and cost are king, Bosch for example is good at automotive and electric motors, the just need to mate theses two 5) Actually, that is Panasonic 6) Only the chargers, power grids are totally different story, and chargers are being built by others as well. Tesla has a head start so One final point, I know of a company in Munich that is testing inductive loading with BMW i3s. If I remember well they achieve 80% loading in 15-20 minutes or so. Robotaxis are a commodity, well the cars at least. For companies running these services based on large fleets the costs and availability are king. That means procurement cost but even more important operating costs and maintenance. The supplier of these fleets needs to offer fleet services, short maintenance periods and quick reaction times. Not sure if Tesla is up to it already. Also, where are you taking your numbers from? $25k and 1k miles? Really?
matt_s 7y ago
The tech is nice and all but there is only so much market penetration to be done in the luxury car segment. I would put the Model 3 in the luxury segment as well since you can get a base BMW 3 series for almost the same money ($40k). People that can afford luxury cars and aren't "in tune" with tech are likely looking at other brands too like Lexus, Mercedes, BMW, etc. If you think about it further, some of those brands have a following because they are fun cars to drive. Drive being the keyword there, BMW comes to mind. If those people don't care about autonomous driving and really like the brand they have, what would get them to switch? In my opinion, they need to punch much lower than $35k for a lowest option. Ditch the auto-driving, sensors, etc. and come out with a base $25K four door sedan, nicely appointed but not luxury, that has the range of a model 3 (220 miles). I took a quick glance at Consumer Reports car reviews for giggles. I would just dismiss them straight from that since I don't want higher chances of maintenance costs long term. The issues they have are with the market, not the tech. And if there are talking points about forgetting the cost of gas and oil changes, etc. when comparing costs ... how many consumers keep detailed track of those expenses to know what the monthly cost is over 5 years of payments to understand if a Tesla is actually cheaper?

hi5eyes 7y ago

of course this rests on the assumption that teslas revenue continues with the investigations looming everything you assume and hope for costs a lot of money >I do believe that vision trumps lidar and they'll get to level 5 automation and the robotaxi meme are just dreams for elon to sell to pump the stock

codexon 7y ago

This is assuming that level 5 automation is possible any time soon, while a growing number of people believe it isn't. If it turns out that we need another 2-3 decades to get there, Tesla will run out of money long before then.

hef19898 7y ago

I have to disagree here. Regarding: 1) Data is collected by others too (Waymo, Uber, etc...) 2) See above, software is simply being purchased by OEMs, the increasing importance of software will be shifting power so 3) Hardware, again Tesla is not the only one 4) Actually easier than ICEs as it is less complex, also in the automotive sector mass production and cost are king, Bosch for example is good at automotive and electric motors, the just need to mate theses two 5) Actually, that is Panasonic 6) Only the chargers, power grids are totally different story, and chargers are being built by others as well. Tesla has a head start so One final point, I know of a company in Munich that is testing inductive loading with BMW i3s. If I remember well they achieve 80% loading in 15-20 minutes or so. Robotaxis are a commodity, well the cars at least. For companies running these services based on large fleets the costs and availability are king. That means procurement cost but even more important operating costs and maintenance. The supplier of these fleets needs to offer fleet services, short maintenance periods and quick reaction times. Not sure if Tesla is up to it already. Also, where are you taking your numbers from? $25k and 1k miles? Really?

matt_s 7y ago

The tech is nice and all but there is only so much market penetration to be done in the luxury car segment. I would put the Model 3 in the luxury segment as well since you can get a base BMW 3 series for almost the same money ($40k). People that can afford luxury cars and aren't "in tune" with tech are likely looking at other brands too like Lexus, Mercedes, BMW, etc. If you think about it further, some of those brands have a following because they are fun cars to drive. Drive being the keyword there, BMW comes to mind. If those people don't care about autonomous driving and really like the brand they have, what would get them to switch? In my opinion, they need to punch much lower than $35k for a lowest option. Ditch the auto-driving, sensors, etc. and come out with a base $25K four door sedan, nicely appointed but not luxury, that has the range of a model 3 (220 miles). I took a quick glance at Consumer Reports car reviews for giggles. I would just dismiss them straight from that since I don't want higher chances of maintenance costs long term. The issues they have are with the market, not the tech. And if there are talking points about forgetting the cost of gas and oil changes, etc. when comparing costs ... how many consumers keep detailed track of those expenses to know what the monthly cost is over 5 years of payments to understand if a Tesla is actually cheaper?